When One Door Closes
On January 10th, 2021, North Carolina FC announced that the club would for the foreseeable future move to USL League One from their previous home in the USL Championship. The former manager, Dave Sarachan, would leave the team.
For fans of a team used to success in both the NASL and USL Championship, as well as a womens’ side that is routinely the best in NWSL, this was a heavy blow. It followed on the heels of a underwhelming season marred by COVID and weak performances all around.
A clear vision emerged from the voluntary relegation. John Bradford, the director of the NCFC Academy, would become the head coach. The club’s releases emphasized their commitment to youth. An unprecedented 15 players were signed to academy deals. How will it pan out?
Until we meet again:
The last year has been unimaginably difficult off the field, and that has been mirrored on the pitch. As a fan it is important to acknowledge the efforts of the players who wore the NCFC shirt in one of the most difficult times in recent memory.
Of the 20 players that earned game time for NCFC, four are returning this year: Nazmi Albadawi, Robert Kristo, Pecka, and Malick Mbaye.
DJ Taylor earned a move to Minnesota United. As one of the best defensive fullbacks for years in USLC, it should be a great opportunity for him to earn top level minutes and advance his career. He joins fellow CASL product Ike Opara with the Loons.
Marios Lomis will play for Greenville in USL League One, and face NCFC; four others (Alex Tambakis, Akeem Ward, Hadji Berry, and Conor Donovan) have signed elsewhere in the US Soccer Pyramid.
Sam Brotherton and Daniele Proch have returned to their home countries of New Zealand and Italy respectively.
Manny Perez is still on the books with Celtic, but with no way to a work permit he will probably need another loan. Andre Fortune also has not found a club as of writing this but as one of the better CMs in USLC last year, he deserves a good landing spot.
Graham Smith, Alex Comsia, and Caleb Duvernay are still unemployed as of writing.
Ben Speas, Steven Miller, and Paulo Pita have retired from professional soccer.
The state of the roster
With almost complete turnover, the roster is in an interesting spot. It’s hard to say exactly how the team will line up, and many of the players signed are flexible and can play a number of positions. I see a 4–4–2 for current personnel, but if more wingers are signed a 4–2–3–1 could be likely as well.
This is a best guess at a depth chart for the players currently signed. I think there will be more signings; there’s a significant lack of depth in certain areas.
Roster Strengths:
The attacking lineup is starting to look very solid. Kristo was a very good ST at the USLC level, taking almost 4 shots and earning 0.39 xG per 90. He will need to put more shots on frame. Josh Coan, a returning academy product, was the joint leading scorer for FC Tucson last season and while he is more typically a winger, he could play off the shoulder of a target forward.
Nazmi Albadawi has gotten older, but certainly still has the ability to boss this level. He should be the focal point of the offense, and if he returns to 2017 form will be an MVP candidate. He hasn’t been at that level for a couple years, but these last few seasons have been anything but normal.
Malyk Hamilton is a mystery stats-wise, but looking at video of his play he looks like a real talent at the right back spot. As a converted forward he will likely struggle with some positioning and defensive play, but he has the athleticism to cover for mistakes. He shows a great ability to pass in tight spaces and move off the ball. His final third passing needs work but the package looks very solid.
Pecka and Mbaye should be solid players in defense at this level.
The way NCFC will play:
In an interview with Ira Jersey of League One Fun, John Bradford said that the team would play a style that is exciting, high energy, and hard to play against. He wants a team that is exciting and unafraid to take risks, but still organized and prepared against the opponents.
This is probably the safest coach statement possible; in America, with no real penalty for losing, coaches will never say they are going to play a drab style of parking the bus while hoping for a draw. Reading between the lines:
- NCFC will try to maintain a positive field tilt; that is, keep the ball in their opponent’s third. Broadly speaking, this correlates with success at the USL L1 level (see chart below)
- Possession is not very important for this team; when they have it, they will try to make dangerous plays happen.
- Traditionally, there are some keys to maintaining positive field tilt: aggressive pressing, reduced passing risk in final third, and quick progression through the defensive and middle thirds. It sounds like Bradford is ruling out possession play. How well NCFC can press and how quickly the team advances the ball will be major factors.
Field Tilt and Possession in League One:
This is the blueprint for teams like Omaha and Richmond. Madison, Tormenta, and Chattanooga also used the approach to varying success. Greenville maintains an aggressive field tilt, but focuses more on possession in the final third.
What marks a successful season?
As an independent team not attached to an MLS side, NCFC should be expected to make the playoffs at a minimum. The level of the talent on the roster at this point seems fairly high.
In the last two years, a pace of 37 points over the course of 28 games (or 1.32 ppg) was enough to make the playoffs. Here’s what the road to 38 pts might look like for NCFC:
Against the top 3 teams: 3 points from 8 games (0.375 ppg, or 1–0–7)
Against teams 4–7: 15 points from 10 games (1.5 ppg, or 4–3–3)
Against teams 8–11 : 20 points from 10 games (2 ppg, or 6–2–2)
Any overperformance against the top 3 teams (Greenville, Omaha, NTX) provides breathing room in the middle and lower end of the table.
Let’s talk goals:
A sign NCFC is successful is if they can reach 40 xG created and 31 xGA allowed over the course of the season. Both numbers are fairly aspirational as just 25% of USL League 1 teams have generated more than 1.42 xG/game, and only 28.5% have given up less than 1.1 xGA/game. Only two teams have done both — Greenville and Omaha in 2020.
Shooting is a key metric as well; successful teams shoot more, and shoot on target more:
Where will the goals come from?
Robert Kristo is the obvious goal scorer on this roster. He may need to increase his average of 3.8 shots per 90 over the last two seasons, but if he can get high quality shots it may not be an issue. He struggled to get shots in good position last year (0.09 xG/shot, well below the average ST), but was better in 2019.
Season Goal: 80 shots, 40 on target, 13 xG.
The above level of return would be MVP level, near Emiliano Terzaghi’s performance stretched to 28 games.
The next big question is where the other goals will come from. On the wing/second striker, Joshua Coan put up 1.5 shots and 0.26 xG per 90 played. A reasonable target is 2 shots per 90, and a season total of 36 shots, 15 on target, and somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 xG. That leaves a total of 21 xG to be made up by the remaining rest of the roster.
Season predictions:
Simple format; I will put the prediction as well as my confidence level for the outcome. A confidence level of under 50% means I think it is unlikely; more than 50% is likely. Exactly 50% is a lack of confidence either direction.
Season Outcomes:
Each team plays 28 games: 90%
NCFC earns more than 28 points: 85%
NCFC earns more than 37 pts: 65%
NCFC is top of the table: 15%
NCFC wins the championship: 10%
Player Predictions
Robert Kristo is the team’s leading scorer: 90%
Robert Kristo is league MVP: 10%
Nazmi Albadawi leads the team in assists: 85%
Albadawi leads the league in assists: 55%
Any academy player earns 300 minutes: 65%
Any academy player earns 800 minutes: 15%
More than 5 academy players earn 300 minutes: 20%
NCFC signs at least 3 more players before Game 1: 90%
NCFC signs at least 5 more players before Game 1: 20%
A player signed after 4/7/2021 starts Game 1: 35%
