Weekend Review: Vs. Reign and Madison

Well, not quite 6 points — or 4, or 3, or even 2. A 1 point weekend from the NC teams, but not quite the disappointment it may seem. The Courage in particular looked good, while NCFC showed a lot of grit and defensive solidity that should be a good sign if it continues.

Courage Vs. Reign:

The Courage looked like complete favorites against OL Reign, and my ELO model predicted an xG edge of 1.62 to 1.12. The actual xG (according to American Soccer Analysis) was 1.74–0.54, greatly exceeding expectations. Even missing Lynn Williams, they absolutely outclassed the Reign and were unfortunate to leave without 3 points.

Based purely on shots, NC would be predicted to win 67% of the time and draw just 22% of the time. They would score 2 or more goals 51% percent of the time.

That didn’t happen, so why not? Let’s look at the key metrics.

Key Metrics:

• Field tilt of 35% or greater in the Reign third: Didn’t happen — just 28%. The game took place mostly in the middle third, with teams trying to break out from there. The Courage did a better job of that, but they didn’t strangle the opponent in their own third like usual.
• Attacking Third completion percentage of 55% or greater: Yes! 56.7%, in fact. This was a big reason NC was constantly creating danger against the Reign. O’Sullivan and McDonald were outstanding in their distribution this game.
• 6 Shots on target between Debinha, Williams, and McDonald: This didn’t happen. Just 5 shots on target for the whole team, costing 0.57 xg between pre and post shot xG models. Great locations, even if the box was congested, but you have to get it on frame.

• Hold the Reign to 8 shots or fewer: The Reign took 11 shots, but only at 0.04 xG per shot. What’s more, they kept the Reign from shooting in the 18 yard corridor in front of the goal entirely. This was an outstanding defensive performance all around.

The most encouraging part of the weekend was almost certainly the return of Erceg, and the whole team seemed much more solid as a result. Hamilton as well put in a brilliant shift. The team seems to be searching for reliable attack options along the trio of McDonald-Williams-Debinha (even more so when one is out like last weekend). Hamilton showed she can be that player.

Reinforcements are coming in the form of Deanna Rose, Haz James, and SAM MEWIS. This team struggled through what should be the toughest part of the season, and is set up for a serious run for the title.

NCFC vs Forward Madison

Pain.

The ELO prediction had it going to Madison 1.51–0.9 xG, but at this point ELO is still treating NC as a median USL League One team. The actual? 1.55–0.51. The 1–0 loss was the most likely outcome, predicted 20% of the time given the xGD.

I’m not sure what I expected — dropping Kamara for Pecka was a sign that the team had no real plans to attack. And they didn’t. They hung on for dear life until a last minute goal from Madison, then had their best chance of the night on a Kristo header in the literal final second of the match.

Let’s look at the metrics… if we have to.

• Limit field tilt to 30% or less in the NCFC third: Honestly I’m mad I have to bring out the spreadsheets for this one. 36% of touches were in NC’s third — and even worse, NC got outpossessed in their own third 53%–47%. This is awful, and even worse, it’s hard on the fans.
• Robbie Kristo has at least 3 shots in the penalty area: Kristo had two shots, both in the last 6 minutes of the game. One was from 35 yards out. He missed both.
• Forward Madison gets less than 7 shots on target: Hey, a positive! Just 3 shots on target from 18 for the home team, although they only needed one.
• Greater than 0.12 xg/shot for NC and less than 0.8 xG/shot for Madison: Nope. Madison had 0.086 xG/shot, which isn’t great, but better than NCs 0.085
• No penalties, no red cards: Guess that’s another positive.

Look; it was ugly. No arguing that. Here’s my thoughts:

• Kristo is getting scapegoated a bit, but the dude was running as a lone striker (not his strong point) and had 0 support from his team. NC attempted the fewest passes in their opponents third of the entire league.
• You have to run Kristo with a faster player nearby to clean up from his target play. Kamara looked really good there against Greenville; I don’t really get the change for Madison when Bradford would have to know the game would play out similarly.
• Luis Arriaga was much better this game, but it’s hard to tell much about what he might look like against other opposition. Pearson seems to be below the standard in possession — plays very safe but makes some crucial mistakes that outweigh the safety. The three man midfield was very exremely negative.
• Flores had a good game, and the left side was about the only place NC could get any attacking thrust. Martinez disappointed, and I think it’s time to see Hamilton get a run out in that role.
• Flick and Mbaye did their best, and they were very busy. I hate to put any blame on them after they had to put in their work.
• Coan barely got on the ball, which is really too bad as he’s a game changer for NCFC.
• A second game for Frame and a debut for Collin McCamy, which is nice to see.