Week 2 Preview: NJ/NY Gotham FC

Game 2 finds the Courage on the road against NJ/NY Gotham FC, a team who eked out a point against Orlando in their first game. Both teams struggled to implement their style in their first game back, and will look to establish themselves further with a strong performance tonight.

Reinforcements are here

The return of Lynn Williams along with O’Sullivan, Casey Murphy, and Caldwell, should be extremely helpful to a team that struggled against the press of the Washington Spirit. Lynn Williams can stretch a defense and in doing so should create more and better opportunities for teammates.

What to look for:

Last game the Courage needed just 4.25 passes in the final third to create a shot, and just 43 passes in the final third to create 1.0 xG; these numbers are better than the average game for any team in NWSL history. This is an encouraging sign. Final 3rd passes per single xG is a strong predictor of team success, even better than xG created.

When NC has the ball:

1. Continue to work the ball quickly towards the goal. Against Washington, the fullbacks were able to play great balls over the top to McDonald, Debinha, and Hamilton — with Williams even more passes should be on.
2. Eliminate defensive mistakes. NJ/NY was able to generate very good shots, in particular Monaghan’s game winner. Allowing them opportunities to find those shots should be avoided
3. Keep the ball in the Gotham third. NJ/NY was able to dominate possession against Orlando, but the bulk of that was in their own third. The ball was only in Orlando’s third for 24.8% of the game. The Courage struggled to maintain possession in the Washington third, with their passes connecting well below what would be expected.

When NY/NJ has the ball

1. Maintain pressure. Orlando’s pressure forced NJ/NY to keep the ball on the ground with the shortest average vertical distance per completion of any team so far in NWSL.
2. Aggressive positioning in the middle and attacking thirds. With the return of O’Sullivan, there is defensive cover against a team that has not shown the ability to threaten on the break.

Key metrics:

NC will win if:

1. At least 33% of all touches are in NJ/NY’s third
2. At least 50% pass completion in the final third.
3. The Courage take 15 shots and have at least 7 on target.
4. The Courage average at least 0.10 xG/Shot
5. Lynn Williams takes at least 4 shots
6. Less than 2 shots surrendered due to possession errors in the defensive third