Take Courage: NCC 2021 Preview
2020 was a weird year.
Despite being the overwhelming favorites, and relatively little change to the roster, the Courage ended 2020 without winning either of the competitions in which they took part. Is it a sign that the dynasty built in Raleigh is crumbling? Or is it just an unlucky outcome due in large part to the chaos of 2020?
The Sky Is Falling
Here is the pessimistic outlook: NC’s core players are getting older and not necessarily better. Their brightest young talents, Addisyn Merrick and Lauren Milliet, were swept up by Racing Louisville in the expansion draft. The team has lost 4 players since last year — Crystal Dunn, Sam Mewis, Abby Dahlkemper, and Jaelene Daniels — who were not only leading players on the team but some of the best players in the league.
Meanwhile, without Jessica McDonald last season, the team struggled to find the right attacking player to complement Debinha and Lynn Williams. An unfortunate injury could mean a serious drop in production for the team, and what will happen when Debinha and Williams are likely both at the Olympics?
Even head coach Paul Riley is predicting early struggles. In the NC Courage roster release, he said the following:
This season will be a massive challenge for our entire group
As well as:
We have a combination of experience, youthful exuberance and dynamic players that will take some time to gel, but once we find the right combinations and balance we will be exciting to watch.
The Sun Is Rising
Alright, pessimism is dumb. The talent level on this team is still the best in the league. I’m going to borrow the “5 Guys” principle from TiotalFootball’s Atlanta United 2021 Preview to show it.
Slight modification: I’m looking at the Offensive Goals Added per 96 ranking of all players who were in the top 11 for minutes for their team since 2016, as opposed to just in the year they competed. That’s about 515 total player-seasons.
The idea is that the top 5 players on your team in large part determine how good your team is. Compare 1–5 and you start to see how teams stack up. Here’s how NC’s top 5 looks: (Offensive Goals Added per 96 for last two seasons combined)
Ok, looks good, but let’s look at in context. Here’s the player ranks 1–5 for the rest of the league.
Now we see the depth of the Courage’s front line. The 4th best player, Kristen Hamilton, would be the most historically productive player by Goals Added on more than half the teams in the league right now. That’s pretty ridiculous depth. There’s plenty of question marks behind those 5 but it’s a fantastic foundation.
The Reign are going to be the toughest opponent — they have top level talent. The departures of multiple USWNT players has hurt the league as a whole, but if they come back after the Olympics it could change the way this stacks up.
Goals, goals, goals
Here’s some more good news: the goals are coming back!
The vast majority of offensive production is back on the roster for 2021. Again, there are some questions about the midfield, but the top level attacking talent is there for this team to dominate.
Into the Unknown
The key questions for this team are going to be in the replacements. Carson Pickett looks like all around a great player with the potential to provide more goal danger than Jaelene Daniels, but it’s still a steep dropoff from the best fullback in the league.
Replacing Sam Mewis and Abby Dahlkemper’s ability to progress the ball into dangerous areas will be key as well. Hailie Mace should see more time this season, and Angharad James looks like a player who can pair up well with Denise O’Sullivan to lock down the middle of the field.
Finally, Hamilton or Mace are going to need to find a way to pick up the loss of Crystal Dunn’s production. Jessica McDonald, the best player in NWSL history, should be back and helping the team run to its full potential, but having a strong attacking player beyond the first three is going to be important.
Style of Play
The Courage have a notable brand, and I doubt we will see a change in their approach to the game. They have the depth and the talent to play an aggressive style and capitalize on opponent mistakes. They have players who can win individual battles and still create for teammates.
The goals for the Courage are simple; keep the ball in the opponent’s half (positive field tilt), keep
The team found success running an aggressive 4–2–2–2 in the Challenge Cup. The Fall Series was much more experimental, with 3- player back lines and a great deal of squad rotation. The roster seems keyed to the 4–2–2–2 and at this point, this seems to be the depth chart.
In the attack as long as Williams and McDonald are present and healthy they will be locked in; if not, expect Hamilton to move forward and Mace to take the RAM position. Solaun will provide additional depth behind Debinha and Mace. Another target forward seems like a possible need, and the late departure of Elizabeth Addo seems like a blow to the flexibility of the attacking group.
The depth in the midfield and defensive positions seems like more of an issue. The starters are all excellent, especially if Mathias is healthy and ready to start, but the overall experience level drops severely after the 1st line. There should be excellent competition for depth spots in practice and I think some players have an opportunity to shine.
Predictions:
Just like I did for the men’s side, I will put a prediction followed by a confidence rating. Greater than 50% is something it think is likely; less than 50% is unlikely.
Team Predictions:
The Courage win the NWSL Challenge Cup: 65%
Courage have the most points from the regular season: 90%
Courage win the NWSL Playoffs: 80%
Courage score the most goals: 80%
Courage allow the fewest goals: 40%
Player Predictions:
Lynn Williams leads NWSL in scoring (regular season): 80%
Jessica McDonald has 10+ goals and 10+ assists: 45%
Debinha leads Courage in assists: 80%
A Courage player wins league MVP: 45%
Deanna Rose gets 500 minutes of playing time: 40%
Random Predictions:
Each teams plays a full 24 game regular season schedule: 75 %
Brianna Pinto wins Rookie of the Year: 25%
Trinity Rodman wins Rookie of the year: 60%
