Opening Day: NCFC vs Greenville Triumph SC

The first game for North Carolina FC this season is just a few short days away, and at this point a great deal about the team is shrouded in mystery. There’s a palpable air of excitement around the club and hopefully the fans should show up as much as possible to make the opening round of USL League One competition successful.

League Roundup

Even though NCFC is yet to play a game, League One has been moving along for more than a month already. This is the table so far:

What to expect from North Carolina FC:

I’m pretty sure we’ll see 1 goalkeeper and 10 outfield players.

In all seriousness, it is hard to say for sure what NCFC’s tactical shape will be. I am leaning towards expecting a 4–2–2–2 box like the Courage play. In my opinion it’s wise to have a defining style for both the men’s and women’s sides and taughtthroughout the academy.

If that is the case, here’s my best guess at the starting XI:

The issue, though, is that North Carolina FC has been extremely tight lipped throughout the preseason. They have not released lineups, or even the players that score goals. Here’s what we know:

4/5: NC vs Richmond Kickers — Frame, McCamy, Holliday, and De Leon played, along with trialists and 1st team players. A twitter account said NC won 3–0 in a 3 period scrimmage.

4/16: NC vs Charleston Battery: The game was tied 0–0 at half, but Charleston won 2–1 at full time. No info on players or scorers.

4/23: NC vs. Independence: 1–0 loss; no info on players

4/30: NC vs. Charleston Battery (again): This time NC wins it 2–1. Josh Coan scored a goal according to his twitter.

That’s about all the info we have. There was some more information released on May 6th in this twitter thread from a press conference:

That gives us some idea of the front attacking 4; Kristo specifically mentions Coan, Kamara, and Miscic. I left Miscic off the 11 but it’s possible Naz plays deeper in midfield. It sounds like Pecka is not yet training with the team, and Flick was in a picture of a preseason match, so I think he is going to start at CB.

Know Your Enemy: Greenville Triumph SC

So far, Greenville has played two matches, won them both, and seen an average of 1.5 red cards handed out per game between the 2. That’s going to to have an impact on the way the numbers show their matches, but there’s still a fair amount to go on between last year and this year. It’s a well run team that is probably the best in USL League One at the moment.

First, the familiar man bun up front, Marios Lomis. He’s been fantastic for Greenville with two goals on just 6 shots, 5 on target. He’s racked up 0.86 xG, slightly better than 0.12 xG/shot, but being able to get shots on target has been impressive. Lomis also is the primary outlet in the attacking third, receiving 18% of the team’s touches in that area.

Lachlan McLean plays as a shadow striker off Lomis. He’s also taken 6 shots but on far fewer final third touches; his role is to move around and explore the space created by Lomis. Still a dangerous striker in his own regard.

Don Smart and Tyler Polack provide the width on the left side, with Polack being a more aggressive progressive player in the middle third as a fullback and Smart putting in more dangerous balls from that wing.

On the right, Murillo looked extremely dangerous as a wing back before his early dismissal. He should be back for the Triumph and starting against NC. Booth, the right winger, will drift more inside and play more vertical balls than smart.

The center backs and center mids will work in tandem to control possession in the middle before moving the ball out to the sides. There are a number of players that could rotate through or play both positions, and there will be flexibility in rotations in the middle third.

Power Prediction:

Greenville is the number one team in my first USL League One Power Rankings. It’s a tough ask for a season opener, but it’s a chance for NCFC to show where they belong.

The ELO difference xG prediction gives us the following prediction for outcomes:

Not terrible! NC should be favored to get at least a point from this game, assuming the roster they have put together is replacement level for USL League One. The quotes from out of camp suggest that the team expects to be above replacement level; I’d love to see that on the field.

The model’s most likely outcome is a 1–0 Greenville victory, but if NCFC plays like the Courage we could see quite a few goals.

Key Metrics:

It’s tough to know what are the keys to successful NC performances, so this is based more in response to the way Greenville plays:

• Limit Lomis to 3 or fewer shots and 1 or fewer inside the box
• More than 11 shots, with more than 7 on target
• Kristo takes 5 shots
• Keep the ball in Greenville’s third more than 28% of the time and in NCFC’s third less than 30% of the time.
• No red cards
• Players enjoy what is supposed to be a beautiful day on Saturday