On Gold: How the USMNT should tackle the Olympics

Old North State Soccer Analytics
23 min readJun 13, 2024

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The last time the USA qualified for the Olympics I was 20. I don’t even remember the tournament; we managed a win against Japan but suffered a late defeat to the Netherlands before being beaten by Nigeria (this was pre FIFA mandated age testing, the rise of which has coincidentally correlated with the decline of Nigeria as a youth soccer power).

These guys are pretty old now

Now a full 16 years later, the USA has qualified again. Well, their U20 team did, as CONCACAF switched qualifying competitions from a standalone tournament to an add on to the U20 World Cup qualifying tournament. It should be noted that while the U23 USA teams have historically been pretty hapless in CONCACAF, our U20s have traditionally hit the sweet spot for being professional but not so good that they don’t get released. It does make it a little weird that the vast majority of players who helped qualify for the Olympic tournament won’t actually participate in it.

The USA as a national team has a particularly young roster, though many of the players that could play in the Olympics will be called into duty for Copa America, and it’s not realistic to expect anyone to do both. That’s unfortunate as the Olympics have the unique ability to draw the eyes of the median American sports fan who is not as interested in soccer. As much as Copa America is a prestigious tournament, the Olympics have a special place in American culture.

Because of the vacuum of established national team players, there is an open conversation about who should represent the USA’s U23s. As a reminder, the Olympics allow only 18 players on the roster and 3 have to be goalkeepers. That means benches are short, and flexibility is an important consideration. There are 3 overage players allowed but aside from them all players must be born on January 1st, 2001, or later.

Team Construction

I’m going to paraphrase George Box — at this level all players are good, and some players are useful. The fact is that the USA has a number of talented and capable players who are not quite Copa America level, but will be called into this team. That sounds like a good thing, but there is a real danger that the team could be poorly assembled and fall apart due to a lack of synergy and a sense of what is required of them.

The last Olympic qualifying tournament should have been a comfortable win for the USA, but the roster construction was so haphazard and mismanaged. The midfield was terrible, with players too young and inexperienced for the moment. The striker corps was essentially an overworked Jesus Ferreira. At the key moments, the team could not figure out a way through a savvy and committed Honduras side.

That’s why it’s extremely important to get the construction right.

The last warmup game against Japan was basically a disaster. The departure of Aidan Morris from camp and a hamstring injury to Gianluco Busio resulted in a strange, uncomfortable formation that fell apart against Japan’s discipline, press, and familiarity. If the team looks as uncomfortable in the Olympics it will be a short tournament.

Role for Initiative

The USA typically lines up in a 4–3–3 or 4–2–3–1 formation. Whichever you call it, there is a lone striker, two wingers, three midfielders, two fullbacks, and two center backs. That gives the rough overall structure, from which the tactical wrinkles and player personalities interpret the game.

There have been a few different ways that Berhalter has approached this (and let’s be clear, this is a Berhalter system from the top down, even with a different manager). Early on in his tenure he tried an inverting RB to help push the midfield further into the attack, and a distributing deep midfielder. In the Olympics he used a vertical left back with an inverting Pulisic while using an underlapping Dest with Weah on the opposite flank. The real hallmarks are a general lack of an advanced creative midfielder (you could call McKennie this sometimes, but not really) and an emphasis on ball movement to create spaces in the defense.

I think the optimal approach is as follows:

(I apologize for the mouthful that are the various player roles)

The USMNT needs a high usage inverting playmaker on one side, with a withdrawn center forward and a vertical line stretching wide forward opposite. Typically teams will play with a playmaking midfielder, a “10”, but the USA for some reason has preferred not to do that. That means that instead you need a comfortable ball progressing box to box midfielder, a low touch defender/box crasher, and a safe distributing holding midfielder. The fullbacks, for proper synergy, are a overlapping wing back on the same side as the playmaker, and a more conservative supporting fullback on the opposite side. The center backs need to be calm and consistent on the ball but are less specialized than any other role on the team.

In support of this, I think every team needs at least 4 genuine set piece threats and at least two reliable set piece takers, but that is secondary to the requirements of the list above.

Pool Review:

High Usage Inverting Playmaker:

Could Esmir be the dark horse?

I think everyone knows who the best Olympic eligible option is for this role — and can probably identify number 2 as well. Gio Reyna has consistently been one of the best USMNT players when he can get on the field. His vision and technique are perfect to absorb the high usage the role demands. If he were to be in the Olympic team, the expectations could be a lot higher. Unfortunately he is almost certainly going to sit this one out. His understudy, Malik Tillman, would be an excellent choice — but unlikely to be available as well.

That leaves a few players who would fit the role, but don’t have the same level of career production.

Esmir Bajraktarevic seemed like he was being groomed for the position in early camps. As a left footed midfielder, he works best on the right wing. He’s shown extremely well in MLS Next Pro as a high usage playmaking winger. Because he’s on the same team as Carles Gil, he does not usually get the chance to show that side of his game in MLS and has struggled this season as his team is on the bottom of the league. He still has a good chance of making this team but as a 2005 is still eligible for next year’s U20 World Cup and would be among the youngest on the team.

Diego Luna was a major piece for the U20 World Cup team, and is a strong player for one of the best teams in MLS right now. His on-off xg+/- is 0.65 per 90, a pretty strong signal of his impact on the game (and also since he’s played only 66% of possible minutes, a pretty strong signal vs noise). He’s a dynamic dribbler and excellent in 1v1s, but doesn’t quite have the string pulling passing ability of some of the other candidates.

Brian Gutierrez is one of the most consistently good young players in MLS, but didn’t play much of a part in the 2023 U20 World Cup cycle and has not been called in to play for the U23s. He’s eligible for Mexico but seems uncommitted to either nation. It’s very hard to tell who in fact is not interested. As a player he’s not as dynamic 1v1 but is a much better passer and more comfortable playing in teammates.

Paxten Aaronson was a major piece of the U20 World Cup team, but hasn’t been playing at the same level or frequency since his move to Eintracht Frankfurt after the tournament. Compared to other options he sees much less usage when he does play, and it might be a stretch to make him the central focus of a possession team. He does have familiarity with an intense press approach that the USMNT might use.

I also want to throw Taylor Booth into the discussion here. Booth operates much more like a true winger, spending time on the flanks instead of the half space. It’s a weird stylistic fit and his overall fitness has been spotty. Quinn Sullivan may be a candidate as well, as he has had a strong season so far with Philadelphia.

Withdrawn Center Forward:

There are relatively few options here (what else is new). Berhalter’s system asks a lot of its strikers and rewards them with relatively few shots, and there definitely aren’t a lot of opportunities to run in behind. That means that if a striker wants to make an impact they have to do it in possession and in combination. Historically that’s been a tough spot for American strikers.

Folarin Balogun and Ricardo Pepi are age eligible for this tournament, but will likely be with the USA for Copa America.

Duncan McGuire seems to be the frontrunner for the position. He burst onto the scene as an MLS rookie, and almost earned a move to Blackburn (undone only by the incompetence of the Blackburn front office). He has good size and strength but can drop well to help keep possession. He operates as well as a target on set pieces or for crosses. He is a frequent shooter and gets into high quality positions. Can the rest of the team create effectively for him? That’s a big question.

Johan Gomez has also received play time with the U23s in preparation for the Olympics. He recorded 3 goals and 4 assists in the 2.Bundesliga, which is a reasonably high level of play. He is much more comfortable on the ball than McGuire, operating deeper in a manner more similar to Josh Sargent than a traditional forward. In terms of stylistic fit, he might be more suited to the way the team wants to play, but he hasn’t been overwhelmingly good with the U23s and really struggled against Japan.

Damion Downs is making a late push for the Olympic roster after getting 2 Bundesliga goals in just a handful of minutes. I’m afraid I don’t know too much about his overall style of play

This does seem like a position that could be improved by an overage player, but there aren’t a lot of notable options in the overage group either. Josh Sargent is currently injured but would be a real candidate.

Vertical Wide Forward:

The companion spot to the playmaker is a player whose main role is to stretch the defensive line on the opposite side, keeping them honest and being available for an outlet on the counter. These players need to be fast, hard working, and have a nose for goal. The good news is we have a lot of them. Generally, footedness isn’t super important here as long as a player can get to their shots.

Cade Cowell hasn’t had a great start to his time with Chivas, but he was actually excellent at the U20 World Cup in this exact role. (This will make a certain kind of person on Twitter mad. I do not apologize). Everyone knows Cowell will never be the next coming of Dimitar Berbatov; what he does do well is run really fast, body defenders, and shoot the ball hard. As long as he’s not the guy trying to control tempo or play in others he does a good job.

Griffin Yow has had a phenomenal season with Westerlo. He scored 6 goals and added 4 assists in just 1500 minutes, doing a lot of the hard work off the ball and getting into advantageous positions. His time with DC United was disappointing, but they weren’t a very good team and he actually did produce reasonably well for his usage.

Bernard Kamungo has one of the best stories in soccer, and it would be great if he could play for this Olympic team, but it’s hard to look past the fact that his level of play has cratered this season. He had 6 goals in 500 minutes for FC Dallas in 2023, but has none in 600+ in 2024. He certainly has the ability to be a difference maker — see the 6 goals in 500 minutes — but recent form is a major concern.

Malachi Jones is off to an excellent start with NYCFC. The 8th pick in the draft has made an immediate impact, relegating a U22 Argentine winger and YDP Brazilian to the bench. He’s had no appearances with the U23s or at any youth level, so it is probably too late to integrate him, but he could add something with his technical quality and directness.

Low Touch Defending/Box Crashing Midfielder:

Because of the need for an advanced playmaker, and the relative demands of the other midfield positions, there is going to be a midfielder left out of the possession equation. That’s ok! This is a perfect opportunity to take a hard working 8 that makes dangerous runs, presses hard, and can destabilize opponents without the ball. It’s also a great opportunity to add another set piece threat.

Cole Bassett has been on a tear in MLS since returning from an ill fated loan to the Netherlands. He is more than adequate with the ball, but seamlessly fits into a Colorado Rapids side (managed by former Red Bulls Chris Armas) whose calling card is fighting hard off of it. He’s excellent at turning defense into offense and getting/finishing good quality chances.

Rokas Pukstas is another player in this mold. He’s been receiving a lot of transfer speculation after a very successful season with Hajduk Split. Still, it seems that most don’t understand his game. He is on the ball very rarely for a midfielder, especially for such a dominant club team. He’s a monster in the air, and wins physical challenges at a high level. His innate sense of movement in the box results in a number of chances. He was tried as a 6 in the last U20 cycle but the position lacked the freedom he was used to, and it was awkward.

Ball Progressing 8:

The partner to the other 8 needs to shoulder more of the progressive burden, getting on the ball deep and either playing on the turn or making a third man run to free up the fullbacks to advance the ball. With the USMNT first team it’s apparent that the team is limited without this sort of player. Despite that Berhalter still often elects to play without a strong progressive midfielder, which can increase the requirements on the fullbacks. There are good candidates for this role with the U23s, which hopefully indicates that this problem will be avoided. The best candidate is likely Yunus Musah, but first team duty means he will likely not be a participant.

Jack McGlynn has been one of the best young midfielders in MLS over the past three years. He is brilliant technically and has exceptional vision. He’s also taken some major steps forward in his defending with the Philadelphia Union. The left footed midfielder is a threat from distance as well as on set piece delivery. His physicality is still a bit of a concern in a high press system.

Gianluco Busio has just wrapped up a successful promotion campaign with Venezia FC. He’s bounced around positionally in his career, and while he does not have quite the range or vision of McGlynn he’s more dynamic and can make an impact on the box as a runner. He also has a strong reputation for set piece delivery and a more varied experience as a professional. He missed the Japan friendly with a hamstring injury that may put him in doubt for the tournament.

Benjamin Cremaschi became most notable to the broader public as a teammate to Messi; he performed well with the extra scrutiny and has parlayed that into a full national team appearance. He sits somewhat between the advanced midfeild roles; not nearly as strong in the progressive phase but still competent on the ball while also being smart with his runs and box movement.

Distributing Holding Midfielder:

The primary purpose of this role is to shield the defensive line, participate in buildup, and sit at the base of the attack to help recycle the attack efficiently. The best player for this role in the U23 pool is likely Johnny Cardoso; he’s not a particularly progressive player but he’s disciplined, technically clean, and is very involved defensively. Too bad he won’t be available!

Tanner Tessmann is most likely the leading candidate for this position. A strong performer for Venezia, he will be attempting to step his game up next season in Serie A. He’s physically imposing and has a reputation for loving a long range pass, which can synergize well with a vertical winger or forward. He’s not a traditional anchor but can fit the role.

Aidan Morris is a tweener, more 8 than 6, but doesn’t quite create enough progression to be considered for the other role. He also doesn’t have the same discipline as a defender, preferring to be a bulldog that hassles the opponents all over the pitch. He’s a quality player, evidence by his rumored $4 million move to Middlesbrough, but the fit for him in this team is a potential concern/

Beyond these two, there is a steep dropoff. U20 starter Daniel Edelman showed the consistency and stability required in that tournament, but hasn’t quite made the best transition to MLS for the Red Bulls. Obed Vargas has filed a switch to play for Mexico. Josh Atencio has had a good run of form for Seattle over the past year, but has had little involvement with the YNTs.

Overlapping Wing Back:

The Berhalter system greatly relies on fullbacks for a number of on field tasks. They shoulder the bulk of the progressive load, are relied on constantly for defending in transition, and frequently crash the box for goal scoring opportunities on the back post. It’s a very tough job, and the fact that the USMNT has two exceptional fullbacks in Sergino Dest and Antonee Robinson raise the ceiling for the entire team. Though both sides tend to get involved in the attack, the overlapping wing back tends to sit a bit wider, is more athletic, and stretches the field earlier. The supporting fullback needs to be stronger in link up play and comfortable sitting more in the half space, getting to the end line only when possession is already established.

The overlapping wing back provides good synergy with the High Usage Inverting Playmaker, as they can stretch the defense while the playmaker occupies the half space.

Bryan Reynolds is a fast, strong fullback who has played a significant role for Westerlo over the last two seasons. He is a good crosser, but can be caught in possession when he’s further from goal. He does get opportunities to crash the box with Westerlo but has struggled to convert them effectively. He’s also a little hazardous as a 1v1 defender and gave up a penalty against Japan.

On the left hand side, Caleb Wiley is an important player for Atlanta United and represented the USA in the U20 World Cup. He has electric pace and has filled out physically over the last two years. He’s had issues turning his obvious physical gifts into on field production.

Kevin Paredes is an electric playmaking left back that could play one of the winger roles, but would have more potential attacking from deep. He’s had success with the USMNT and is one of the few players with experience in a top 5 league.

Cameron Harper has shifted into the RWB role with the Red Bulls and shown quality but not consistency. He hasn’t become the locked in starter with Red Bulls that he could be, though.

Supporting Fullback:

These fullbacks are less offensively focused and more conservative than their counterparts. While they can overlap when called upon, they do better playing as cover and helping kill transitions.

Nathan Harriel has become an important player for the Philadelphia Union. He’s a strong defender and aerial presence, and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes.

John Tolkin can do either role the fullback position requires, and is a consistent presence defensively as well. He also adds value as a left footed set piece taker. He’s played thousands of minutes as a pro already, and has emerged as a young leader for the Red Bulls.

George Bello has 7 USMNT appearances and just won a championship with LASK, but for whatever reason is totally out of the picture for the U23s. His experience could be useful for the Olympic team, as long of a shot as that might be.

Center Backs:

These players are going to be less specialized out of necessity. There aren’t really any notable distributors in the U23 pool, and the number of left footed CBs is limited as well. The players auditioned in camp were Jonathan Tomkinson, George Campbell, Brandan Craig, and Maxi Dietz.

Jalen Neal was at one point the frontrunner, but has struggled with fitness and may not be fully ready in time for the Olympics. Of all the options he is probably the most competent on the ball as well as a solid defender.

To me, these players are mostly interchangeable and the lack of a true LCB could potentially be a problem. Justin Che hasn’t really been involved but he does have a level of athleticism and flexibility the rest of the pool doesn’t seem to have.

Role Grades:

The U23 pool, like all others, has strengths and weaknesses. Some of these roles have deeper pools than others. As always, careful consideration of team construction is the only way to success.

High Usage Inverting Playmaker:

I think this role is one of the deeper and better ones. The problem is that Mitrovic has not always committed

Esmir has looked really good when given the ball a good deal, and I think the team has slowly built towards making him the main option. It’s a little crazy to give a relatively inexperienced player so much responsibility, but he offers something we don’t have in the pool. Paxten Aaronson is a hard worker off the ball and can make good things happen with the press, while still being a net plus with the ball at his feet. Diego Luna and Brian Gutierrez have been excellent and could be on the roster, for rotation purposes or in case Esmir is not working out. Taylor Booth or Quinn Sullivan could be considered as flexible pieces who can jump in if needed.

Pool Grade: A

Withdrawn Center Forward:

Without Pepi or Balogun, the pool of strikers gets shallow fast. McGuire is probably the most well rounded but the Japan game shows that when he gets starved for service he can’t reliably drop in to get involved. Gomez is less imposing and may not be as much of a goal threat, but if he can enable the rest of the team to get better chances he could be the better choice. Downs may be the most dangerous going forward but it’s an open question if he can do the other work the position needs to do in the setup.

Pool Grade: C-

Vertical Wide Forward:

Another area of relative strength. These do not have to be brilliant ball players, they just need to make good aggressive runs and be difficult for defenses to handle. They shouldn’t be on the ball very often, and if they are there is a breakdown elsewhere in the offense.

Cowell is at his best here, though he is likely the weakest in other aspects of the game. Yow adds a lot of hard work defensively and some quality on the ball but lacks some of the pace or physicality of the other options. Kamungo’s terrible form of late is a major concern, but when playing up to his potential there aren’t many who can cover him. Jones is unfortunately a little too late in his rise to be considered. If any of these players are called, and used correctly, I predict they will have a great tournament.

Pool Grade: A-

Low Touch Defending/Box Crashing Midfielder:

The two players best fit for this position are both very good, but if they are not managed effectively will be put in positions where they won’t succeed. The main concern I would have is that they are asked to do too much in the buildup or progression phases where they should be at most secondary options.

Cole Bassett is a little more well rounded and experience than Pukstas, but Pukstas is a more consistent threat in and around the box and is a proven ball winner when given the freedom to do so. I think one of the two should absolutely be on this roster but I have a bad feeling that neither will actually end up in Paris.

Pool Grade: A+

Ball Progressing 8:

To me Jack McGlynn is the must call up from this group. He is too good on the ball to leave behind, and it was noticeable in the friendly vs Japan that the game calmed down when he came in. His growth defensively is notable over the past two seasons. Busio is naturally flexible, so if fit should be a lock for this roster. Cremaschi is solid but not quite as good with the ball as Busio, and could be considered as an option if Busio cannot go.

Pool Grade: B

Distributing Holding Midfielder:

Tessmann is adequate for the role, although if he were to get hurt or need rotation there are some real questions marks behind him. This is a role that basically needs a committed backup as yellow cards can quickly become an issue. I don’t rate Tessmann as much as some; I think he struggles under opponent pressure and is not totally comfortable as a 6, and his ability to connect his passes from deep is inconsistent at best. That said I think of everyone available he is the clear starting choice.

I’ll try to limit my issues with Aidan Morris to a single paragraph. He’s not a 6 — he doesn’t play with positional discipline and leaves gaps behind him when he chases the ball. It works with Columbus’ back 3, it won’t with the US U23s. He doesn’t progress the ball efficiently individually, instead being primarily a sideways passer. Despite this he usually gets about 100 touches per game. This hasn’t just been with Columbus who love keeping possession; he’s gotten similar touch numbers with the USMNT when he’s played with them. Despite the insane number of touches he produces little in terms of progression or shot creation. He’s a very inefficient high touch player who works really hard and rarely loses the ball. I think he has a future ahead of him, but for this team, with these expectations, he’s a bad fit. To fit him you need to reshape the team around him. Bringing and starting Morris is pretty much guaranteed, unless Middlesbrough doesn’t release him; he’s beloved by the coaching staff by all accounts. It’s just going to be a mistake.

There’s not really a lot to say about the other options. They’re not really in contention for a spot with the other two ahead of them.

Pool grade: C

Overlapping Wing Back:

Reynolds and Wiley, the two main candidates for this role, have not looked great with the US U23s. Wiley notably struggled at the U20 World Cup as well. He was one of the highest usage fullbacks in the tournament but did not have much end product and did not do a great job of bringing in his teammates. Reynolds has had stronger club performances and even looked good with the senior USMNT but has not been able to step up his play to a bigger role with this group.

Paredes has not seen as much time but seems like the natural starter at LB. There is also an argument to be made that Taylor Booth could function as an overlapping right back and take advantage of his comfort on the right flank, but that would be a very unfamiliar position. As a position group it could be a strength, or be a real problem. I’m not sure where I come down on it.

Pool grade: B-?

Supporting Full Back:

Nathan Harriel has been playing this role for years and while it’s not flashy, it is valuable to a team that gets the opposite side fullback so far forward. He naturally knows what to do to cover for the aggressive Kai Wagner.

On the left side, Tolkin has lots of experience including in high pressure playoff games. He took the penalty to send Red Bulls to the playoffs last season, and has a record of being a good set piece taker. He is competent going forward as well as defending, and is a natural fit for the team. He just doesn’t think the Earth is round. Tough.

This group isn’t world beaters, but they’re not a weakness either.

Pool Grade: B+

Center Backs:

It’s a bunch of borderline MLS level rotation players or lower level starters (if that). Probably the biggest area of concern on the team. No clear strengths and nothing extra on set pieces. If Jalen Neal is not ready in time, the outlook is very grim.

Pool Grade: D-

Overage Players:

The Olympics does allow for 3 overage players, which is useful in repairing parts of the pool that aren’t quite up to the standard. The biggest glaring issue is at CB, where it seems that Walker Zimmerman is the most likely contender to be sent to the Olympics. Of course, he looked rough against Japan with little support from his back line partners. He doesn’t have the same level of burst he used to and will need to be paired with a real ground covering CB (like Che). Personally, I’d prefer Mark McKenzie. McKenzie is a little younger, a more accomplished passer, and can play LCB much more comfortably than Zimmerman.

Because of the struggles at CB, the next overage spot should probably go to a combination DM/CB that can cover either position in a pinch as well as provide tactical flexibility if a 3 CB line is needed. Lennard Maloney looks to be out of Copa American reckoning and did an admirable job at Heidenheim this season as a DM. Another experienced option is James Sands, who has both extensive USMNT experience as well as positional flexibility.

The third spot quite frequently goes to a goalkeeper. Roman Celentano is one of the best performing GKs in the USMNT pool, but hasn’t really gotten much of a look for the USMNT and could use the Olympics to break out. That said, I think Schulte, Brady, and Slonina are more than adequate as a pool. I think it would be better to add flexibility on the back line and shore up the LB position with DeJuan Jones. Jones has been a little off this season as New England are in a full tailspin, but he’s a quality player who is two footed, can play both sides, and is a competent passer and possession player. He’s got a lot of experience and is a strong athlete.

Final Roster:

Understanding the limitations of the roster, these are the 18 that I think should be on the plane to Paris:

Playmaker: Diego Luna, Taylor Booth
CF: Duncan McGuire, Damion Downs
WF: Cade Cowell, Griffin Yow
Box Crasher 8: Cole Bassett
Progressor 8: Jack McGlynn, Gianluco Busio
Distributor 6: Tanner Tessmann, James Sands
Overlapping FB: Kevin Paredes
Supporting FB: Nathan Harriel, DeJuan Jones
Center Back: Mark McKenzie, Jalen Neal
Goalkeeper: Patrick Schulte, Gaga Slonina

It’s hard to get down to final cuts but this would be a roster that covers all the important roles. The hardest cuts to me were Esmir, Pukstas, and Reynolds, but in the end flexibility matters more sometimes than individual quality. Taylor Booth, Gianluco Busio, and DeJuan Jones are 3 players who make the roster precisely because of how flexible they are.

There’s also the fact that certain players need certain partners. Esmir needs an overlapping RB to be effective, but is Reynolds the best choice to bring?

That said, here’s who I think will be there:

Playmaker: Esmir Bajraktarevic, Paxten Aaronson
CF: Duncan McGuire, Johan Gomez
WF: Cade Cowell, Griffin Yow
Box Crasher 8:
Progressor 8: Jack McGlynn, Gianluco Busio, Aidan Morris
Distributor 6: Tanner Tessmann, Lennard Maloney
Overlapping FB: Caleb Wiley
Supporting FB: Nathan Harriel, John Tolkin
Center Back: Walker Zimmerman, ???
Goalkeeper: Patrick Schulte, Gaga Slonina

I can’t even begin to guess who CB2 will be. There’s also space for a third overage since I don’t think DeJuan Jones will be picked by Mitrovic.

Tournament Outlook:

I don’t feel great about the Olympics. This has always been a thorny age group for the USA and this year appears no different. This team did not actually qualify, a different team did, and for the most part has not had enough time together to really develop a system. I think that the way the midfield will be set up is not going to be successful past the group stage and may not even be successful in the group stage.

I do think that the team will successfully navigate the group stage. A loss to France is likely, but getting two results from Guinea and New Zealand should be the expectation. Guinea is not bad, though, and underestimating them could lead to disaster.

Once the group stage is over, the real competition will begin. The most likely outcome would be a knockout round matchup against Argentina. Now, if the USA can win that one, anything is possible. I personally doubt it. But hey, that’s the magic of sports.

Anything can happen.

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