It’s Not a Tunnel, It’s A Hole

About last Sunday…

North Carolina FC gave up 37 shots on the road to Chattanooga Red Wolves SC. Of those 37, 13 were on target.

The only thing between those shots and the net were a 15 year old goalkeeper, Nicholas Holliday, who over the course of 73 minutes kept out every attempt and held the game for NC in his hands. Even though Chattanooga won the game 3–2, that’s incredible.

Looking through years of data, the only comparable performance I could find was Tyler Deric’s shutout of Sporting Kansas City on October 15th, 207. As bad as the game was at least we have that.

It can always get worse

These last 3 games have felt like they must be the nadir for the team. Against Ft Lauderdale tied late and dominating, a poor corner led to Mbaye’s dismissal and a late collapse. After a strong start against Greenville, the team failed to create anything and fizzled out on the road. And then Chattanooga, probably the most one sided game of soccer I’ve ever seen — and I’ve watched some one sided soccer.

For example, in the 2018 CONCACAF U20 Championships, the USA played the US Virgin Islands and won 13–0. Even despite that domination they only took 27 shots. If Nicholas Holliday was playing for USVI, it might have been a pretty close match.

And yet, to paraphrase Homer Simpson, it’s just the worst part of the season SO FAR. There’s still 21 games to go!

What Have We Learned:

Bradford is in a tough spot. It’s no secret that most of our senior players are injured.

Actually, let me rephrase that — it is a secret, because I haven’t seen a single injury report or really been able to understand why the roster changes so much from week to week. I know that fans aren’t entitled to this information and for academy players it may be overly intrusive, but it’s still odd to me. That’s not my point though.

Bradford has to play youth, and while it’s been inconsistent as to who plays, it’s been a good thing to see. It hasn’t been great on the field.

NC has lost the tilt battle absolutely. 33% of their games have taken place in their own third, the worst in the league. To add on to that, they are the worst in the league at making opponents work for shots; it has taken opponents just 6.39 passes in the final third per shot generated. If you let the other team have the ball a lot, that’s fine, as long as you can prevent them from turning it in to shots. NCFC has not been able to do so.

When Bradford was interviewed early on in the season he said he wanted his team to be tough to play through. They haven’t been. He wanted his team to be exciting. My wife said that Sunday’s game was the worst she’d ever seen. In terms of vision, I don’t think anyone expected to be here.

Without significantly changing the way the team plays the game, I just don’t see sustained success.

The Bright Spots

There have been some bright spots, so let me run through them.

• Jay Tee Kamara has been great. He seemed erratic in Week 1 but settled down and is easily NCFC’s best player. He leads the league in xA, despite playing 300 minutes less than some other players. If it wasn’t for the dire nature of the team he’d be an MVP candidate.
• The young attackers have looked ok. Frame has seen the most time, but in Subah’s 25 minutes he has looked like a player that belongs at this level.
• The offense is actual not that bad: as a team, NCFC is 5th in xG per game. That’s top half! That’s even more impressive when you consider how little we have the ball in the other team’s third. NC is 5th in passes per shot in the attacking third as well.
• Nicholas Holliday was great, as we already mentioned.’
• According to American Soccer Analysis, based on our shots vs our opponents our expected points is 7.85, so it’s basically been as bad as it could be.

Where do we go from here:

When you look at the players who have missed significant time, there’s no doubt that improving in the league will mean getting players back.

In the preview, I stated that 37 points is probably necessary for making the playoffs. We’re on track for 4, so maybe that is a bridge too far, but let’s do some math. 36 points in 21 games is 1.71 per game. That’s a lot, but not outlandish; it would mean NC would need to be about the 4th best team in the league. If the right players come back, and things break right, maybe we could be looking at a miracle

In the end, though, it’s about baby steps. Score some goals. Win a game. Get a shutout.

Bradford has asked fans to be patient, and to see it through with the team. And we will; many of these players are from our community and we want to see them succeed. Patience will not run out.