Ins and Outs: Gold Cup Roster
Out of 59 provisional players, 23 made the final cut to go to the Gold Cup. Games start for the USA on July 11th against either Haiti, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Bermuda, or Barbados. The actual opponent will be known after the game on the 6th. Here is the final roster:
It’s hard to find any extreme objections here, but there are some curious choices. I’ll look more at the MLS players due to the wealth of data available.
The CBs
In: Miles Robinson, Walker Zimmerman, Donovan Pines, James Sands
Out: Auston Trusty, Henry Kessler, Justen Glad, Erik Palmer Brown, Cameron Carter Vickers
This will be a trend, but none of the CBs from the Olympic qualifying squad returned for the Gold Cup. Pineda didn’t even make the provisional roster.
Strengths:
Miles Robinson is a player a lot of people are excited to see. His strength is in progressive play. Here’s his FBRef scouting report for the last year in possession:
Atlanta has some pretty big issues with getting the ball downfield, but it’s not Robinson’s fault. He’s capable of driving the ball downfield by passing or carrying and is one of the most ball dominant CBs in the league.
Zimmerman is less of an on ball threat, but is adventurous in getting up the field and creating danger in the final third. While he doesn’t get on the ball as much as many CBs, he receives a lot of pressure when he does. This is a testament to the way he draws in opponents before playing balls through into dangerous areas.
He’s also an elite set piece threat, with 20 shots in since 2020 from set pieces. Of those 10 have been on target and 3 have turned into goals.
These are two fairly aggressive CBs, and it might be nice to have a player that can balance them out and provide sideline to sideline cover — especially if Berhalter runs out a 3 man back line. Enter James Sands.
Sands can do double duty as the 6 or as a CB. For NYCFC, Sands usually joins the back line as a 3rd CB. He is mostly a distributor in buildup as NYCFC relies on Keaton Parks and the FBs to advance the ball down the field. His Vertical distance per completion is the lowest of every center back on the roster.
He is also non existent as a scoring threat, having never scored a professional goal and only ever putting one shot on frame. His role is to sweep up attacks, be calm in defense, and put out fires. He’s perfect cover for Robinson or Zimmerman, and can play the 6 as well as CB.
Pines was the surprise of the roster to me. He’s received negative attention for the Thiago goal last week, but for the most part he’s a solid defender. His best trait is his dominance in the air. He gets more shots from set pieces than Zimmerman per 96 minutes, and gets them on frame at the same rate. He has the same number of set piece goals (3).
Weaknesses:
This is a pretty strong group of defenders, with each player’s individual weaknesses covered by a teammate’s strength. The big question would be how quickly Gregg can bring two brand new players up to speed.
If Robinson and Zimmerman start in a back 4, which seems likely based on Gregg’s comments, there may be times where one has to do some emergency defending in transition when the other is caught too far upfield. They’re both fairly strong transition defenders, but it’s still touch and go when it happens.
Finally, there’s no outstanding passer on this team a la John Brooks. Zimmerman is the best of the group and will probably do the most work in that area. Robinson is prolific but lacks the ability to test a defense consistently switches and through balls from deep. Sands is fairly limited as a passer still, and Pines is adequate but unimpressive. Berhalter has relied on Brooks and Ream to distribute, and it’s worked — hopefully a CB can step up and do the same.
What’s Left Out:
The CBs left off the final roster really don’t bring anything that’s not covered by these 4. Erik Palmer Brown can do double duty like Sands, but was left to improve his club position in Europe — as was CCV. Trusty is a very good passer and left footed but his defending is not at the required level. Kessler and Glad both being left off is unsurprising after the Olympic Qualifying performance.
The FBs
In: George Bello, Sam Vines, Reggie Cannon, Shaq Moore
Out: Aaron Herrera, Julian Araujo, Chase Gasper
Vines comes in from the ill fated Olympic while Araujo and Herrera are left at home.
The Strengths:
First, it’s hard for me to talk much about Moore. I honestly haven’t seen him play that much. The one thing that jumps out is how much he shoots for Tenerife — he took 0.64 shots per 90 last season, which is a lot compared to the rest of the FBs on the squad,
Bello has been around for a while, and was hyped as the next big thing before even playing a game for Atlanta. That’s cooled down a bit, but he’s a pretty good player for being 19 years old.
For the last year and a half, Bello has been a remarkably safe player in possession. His 88% completion rate hints at that, but when you look at ASA’s xPass statistics it’s even more notable. Since 2019 his expected completion percentage is 86.8%, highest of ALL FBs in that time frame. He’s not a high risk passer, preferring to be a possession recycler. Is that a good thing? It depends. I’m not convinced it works out well for Atlanta but for the USA, where you have progressive players all around you, it should be fine.
Cannon was similar in his time in MLS, with an expected pass completion percentage of 84.2%. Both are well below average in key passes or shot creating actions as well. In the USMNT system, their purpose is to support the wingers, come in when necessary, and play solid defense. Cannon showed he can score goals and create them as well but it’s not his primary role.
Vines is similar for his club. He’s around the average for touches in the final third, and Colorado is not as dominant as the USMNT usually is. Vines gets more forward in a USA jersey and is key for creating down the left side.
Weaknesses:
The truth is that none of these players are that exciting — nor should they be. I don’t think that’s their role. They support the defenders who are the key possession players and the attackers who are there to create danger.
Ball progression is an issue with this crew, all below average MLS players in progressive carries per 90. Cannon does grade highly in carrying into the final third, and is probably the best of the group.
None of these players are going to give you much in the way of goals or assists, but FBs only shot 4 times combined in the 4 game stretch for Nations League and associated friendlies. I think Gregg likes these players because they play within themselves and are good enough for what he needs them to do.
What’s Left Out:
Araujo declined the invite — interesting to wonder if he was above Moore (more likely) or Cannon (less likely). He is more dangerous in the final third than any of the other FBs, but much less consistent.
Herrera is a nice and slightly underrated player, but hasn’t had a great season as a defender. He’s more aggressive than Cannon or Moore, and is a strong progressive player. He’s just not consistent enough compared to the options ahead of him.
Brooks Lennon is an outstanding RB in MLS, but he is out and out an attacking wing back and that does not appear to be what Berhalter is looking for. Duncan is also more of an attacking player with an extremely high usage rate for NYRB in the final third.
Berhalter is not dogmatic about many things but he seems to be just that about left footed players playing left back. The exception of course is Dest, but the fact that he has never considered players like DeJuan Jones or Jaylin Lindsey is a sign that he really considers this to be nonnegotiable. Maybe Moore will play left back in this tournament as he has done so before for the USA, but I think it’s unlikely.
The DMs/CMs
In: James Sands, Jackson Yueill, Kellyn Acosta, Gianluca Busio, Sebastian Lletget, Cristian Roldan
Out: Johnny Cardoso, Andres Perea, Tanner Tessmann, Leon Flach, Hassani Dotson, Frankie Amaya, Moses Nyeman, Paxton Pomykal, Cole Bassett
10 cuts to make the final roster is a lot, and this has always been a competitive position. None of the omissions are absolute shocks.
Strengths:
It seems obvious that Berhalter is leaning towards flexibility in the midfield. Lletget is about the only one that really just plays one role in the Berhalter offense, as a possession linking 8.
The 6 will most likely be Yueill, but it doesn’t have to be; Yueill has played as an 8 under Berhalter and in Olympic qualifying. We may not even see a traditional 6 and instead see a double pivot or something even more flexible. Berhalter has brought options.
Acosta is a more mobile and defensively able 6, and may see time in that position if Gregg is comfortable with the distributive abilities of his CBs. He’s also an option if Berhalter feels the other team will have the ball more, but that is unlikely to be the case until playing Mexico.
Busio and Williamson are unlikely to start, but can play any of the midfield roles and add additional flexibility. Many fans see Busio as a player who can play the 6 similar to Jackson Yueill, although I feel that is not entirely apt. Busio hits switches from deep at similar rates but is more willing to drive the ball forward on the ground, and is much more active in the final third, almost doubling Yueill’s attacking third touches per 90. He’s also pressured far more as a passer in SKC’s system. Yueill maintains the edge in 1v1 defending as well as system familiarity.
The other thing that always needs noting about Busio is that he is a volume shooter. At 2.29 shots per 90 this season he is far and away the most aggressive shooter in the group. His shots are not always great quality, but considering the goalkeeping quality may not always be high in this tournament it may turn out well.
Williamson was left out of the Olympic roster despite being exactly what the team needed; a player who can drop deep to receive the ball before turning and driving at the defense. Acosta, Lletget, and Roldan can all do that as well, but Williamson outpaces them in both progressive carries per 90 and progressive distance per carry. He’s aggressive and a dangerous player on the run, and could be a good option off the bench when teams are tired to create some havoc.
With the press conference indicating that Hoppe and Gioacchini are going to play more as wingers, it seem likely Roldan will be playing as an 8 for this team. This is a huge opportunity for him as he is in incredible form in MLS and is emerging as an MVP candidate. According to FBRef, Roldan is 99th percentile for npxG+xA for midfielders despite being 92nd percentile for attacking third touches. That means he’s beating the expectations as a creative player even with fairly high usage.
Weaknesses:
Aside from Sands, there are no players who can do the job of a Tyler Adams in cleaning up and defending in transition. Leon Flach missed the cut and would have been a good option here, but is still fairly green and would have been a risk. Andres Perea was looked at as another player who could do that, but apparently was not good enough to be brought in. It was fairly obvious in the Olympics that he could not quite handle the usage that came with the role.
Berhalter really loves Yueill. I don’t. I think his best trait, his passing, is still fairly unimpressive and he’s a net negative compared to some of the other options out there.
What’s Left Out:
Quite frankly there needs to be a little more media attention on the continued exclusion of Keaton Parks.
He’s performed very well for NYCFC, locking down a starting position in a possession oriented offense, and playing all over the midfield for them throughout the last three seasons. Just look at the difference last game for NYCFC after he subbed in at the half against DC United:
Obviously it can’t all be attributed to Parks but NYCFC is a different team without him. He’s vital for getting the ball from areas of low threat to areas of high threat, something the USA has struggled with when Brooks, McKennie, and the other stars are not on the field. It is continuously surprising to me that he completely ignored by the national team and the media around them.
From the Olympic Qualifying roster, I am really surprised Hassani Dotson didn’t get a look. He was the best midfielder and comfortable playing in all thirds and combining with wide players, a key part of the USMNT attack. He was about the only bright spot from the group games.
Cole Bassett is in a similar boat to Parks although he at least made the qualifying roster. He had a good season last year and is continuing to do so with Colorado, but was not called up for Olympic qualifying and does not seem to be in the picture.
Tanner Tessmann has struggled to earn minutes for Dallas. He’s still a very raw player with lots of potential but still so much to learn. His potential/likely transfer to Serie A also means he needs to prepare for a new season. Cardoso, his Olympic teammate, was extremely poor in qualifying and needs to ingratiate himself to a new manager. I don’t think either will be missed.
I think Frankie Amaya is going to have to separate himself somehow as a player to earn more consideration; he offers less than Roldan or Williamson, and is less experienced than Lletget.
The Wings/Half Space Merchants
In: Matthew Hoppe, Nico Gioacchini, Paul Arriola, Jonathan Lewis
Out: Caden Clark, Cade Cowell, Robbie Robinson, Chris Mueller, Djordje Mihailovic, Memo Rodriguez, Corey Baird
This is where things get a little weird. Neither Hoppe nor Gioacchini normally play in the half spaces where we see Pulisic and Reyna, but Berhalter indicated that’s where he saw them playing. Arriola and Lewis are more capable of coming in but are still more direct than either Pulisic or Reyna. No position group has more question marks going in than this one.
Strengths:
This group takes a lot of shots. Arriola and Lewis are both 99th percentile for wingers in shots per 90 over the last year, with 3.4 and 3.37 respectively. Hoppe was not a volume shooter for a bad Schalke side, but it’s hard to take much away from that. Hoppe and Arriola both have well above average shot quality, with Hoppe’s npxG/shot in the 66th percentile for strikers.
Arriola and Lewis are both aggressive off the dribble, averaging 0.78 shots created off the dribble per 90 between the two of them. Lewis will probably be on the left, cutting inside to create chances.
Weaknesses:
Chance creation is a question mark for this squad. Pulisic and Reyna both create chances for teammates at a high rate (3.74 and 3.14 SCA per 90 respectively). Arriola does well here at 3.57, but Lewis and Hoppe create less than half of the chances.
Defensively no players stand out as well. Pulisic and Reyna are willing and able pressers, but neither Arriola or Lewis press at nearly the same level with their club teams. Switching to the USA’s system may require an adjustment. Hoppe does press at a similar rate, but Schalke’s overall lack of possession is probably an influencing factor here.
Lewis was a disaster in Olympic qualifying, best summed up by this clip here:
Will he be able to bounce back and create danger for the USMNT?
What’s Left Out:
Probably the greatest quality left behind is from this position group.
Caden Clark’s unfortunately timed appendectomy is devastating. While Clark does not create chances at a high rate, he is an absolute dynamo in the press and can play directly and get quality shots.
Chris Mueller was the biggest surprise of an omission. He is an excellent player in the direct winger mold, and creates for other players very well. His USMNT performances have all been solid.
Cade Cowell is playing brilliantly for San Jose this season, but mostly as a forward. His appearances at winger have been underwhelming. His pace is always a threat, but his on ball ability is underrated due to his physical presence. I would have liked to see him on this roster.
Djordje Mihailovic and Memo Rodriguez are both excellent in the half spaces and very productive for their teams. It was great to see Memo on the provisional roster, and they could play in the midfield as well. Mihailovic has struggled at the international level, most recently in Olympic Qualifying. These omissions seem to be a result of a slightly different approach to the wing position.
The 9s
I wrote a detailed look at all the striker options here:
In: Gyasi Zardes, Daryl Dike
Out: Jesus Ferreira, Ricardo Pepi, Rubio Rubin, Jozy Altidore, Robbie Robinson, Jeremy Ebobisse
Strengths:
Dike and Zardes are both excellent at turning chances created into goals scored. Zardes is notable for his ability to take high quality shots; he is 74th percentile in npxG per 90 at 0.43, but that is primarily on the back of his 0.20 npxG/shot (91st percentile). His off ball movement is excellent and can even create goals without even touching the ball:
Dike also takes high quality shots (0.15 npxG/shot), but even better puts his shots on frame at a high rate. He has exceeded his expected goals with both Orlando and Barnsley so far due in large part to his ability to shoot on target.
Both are solid target players, although Zardes has struggled with his ability to receive the ball in the past year. They win aerials at good rates and should be able to cause problems against CONCACAF defenders. Zardes in particular is very strong in the air and should be able to generate goals from corners and set pieces.
Both players are hard to defend and the result of that is a good deal of fouls drawn. Zardes is 58th percentile at 1.69 fouls drawn per 90, while Dike is 92n percentile with 2.76. This is valuable as the USMNT has many set piece threats on the roster. Here’s a great example of what teams must resort to in order to defend Dike:
One notable trait from both is their ability to generate goals from shots taken off the dribble. Dike in particular can push past less physical players and hold them off with his quick feet.
Weaknesses:
Neither player is notable for their usage on their teams. They do most of their work off the ball and are in the bottom 10% for touches per 90 for strikers. Zardes is renowned for his poor first touch but Dike has issues in that area as well. Both players lose the ball far more than would be expected based on their touch numbers.
Neither player commonly drops deep to receive the ball, a hallmark of the approach Berhalter took in Nations League and the approach used in Olympic Qualifying. With wingers that are more focused on scoring, will there be enough link up play to facilitate that?
What’s Left Out:
Jesus Ferreira started as a False 9 for Berhalter prior to Olympic Qualifying and reprised that role under Kreis. It was a bit much for him in that tournament, and his recovery since probably ruled him out. He has looked good in the last few games for Dallas as a more central player.
His teammate, Ricardo Pepi, has been excellent this season. Fighting initially for minutes behind Franco Jara he has shown all the necessary traits of a high level 9. He can score, link up possession, and carry the ball at defenders. His age and relative inexperience may have cost him a spot.
Robbie Robinson was a fascinating name to see on the provisional roster. Famous for being taken just before Dike in the 2020 MLS Superdraft, he nonetheless has looked solid for Miami. He just lacks a scoring touch and struggled to find minutes in a central position with Gonzalo Higuain on the field. He is still a name to watch as time goes on as he could play wide or in the center under Berhalter’s system.
Jeremy Ebobisse is a more natural deep lying forward, and is excellent in the air, but has not managed to impress Berhalter enough to earn a look at the Gold Cup. Missing out on the Olympics as well, he is on the outside looking in going in to World Cup Qualifying.
Rubio Rubin had a hot start to the MLS season, but has cooled off some. His underlying numbers are not as impressive as some of the others. He made the provisional roster after he was rumored to be considering a switch to Guatemala’s national team.
Jozy Altidore’s issue has always been fitness, and after an extended time training away from Toronto FC there is no way he is in the shape necessary to play a full tournament. On his best days there is not a better striker in the pool, but as he gets older those days are fewer and farther between.
In Summary
The team that Berhalter has brought to the Gold Cup is flexible, balanced, and seems to have a clear style with backup options for when things don’t go to plan. There are certainly some question marks but all in all it appears to be a strong side.
Key Questions:
- With James Sands will we see a 3 back line make an appearance?
- If Zimmerman and Robinson are in a back 2, will there be effective rotations to cover space if either player attacks from deep?
- Will Jackson Yueill start as the 6 in a distributing role, or will we see Kellyn Acosta as a player who can cover the defensive area better?
- With more defensive-minded FBs, who is going to provide attacking width?
- Will Lletget and Roldan be able to create enough chances to let the 3 forwards focus on scoring?
- Will we see Hoppe or Gioacchini switch to the 9 if Dike and Zardes can’t get the job done in build up?
