Gold Cup Bubble Options Deep Dive — the 9s
This week, a 59-man provisional roster was released for the CONCACAF Gold Cup, with the available names suggesting a great deal of rotation from the CONCACAF Nations League champion squad. This is exciting as it is a good look at the squad depth that will be key for the USMNT in World Cup Qualifying.
In this article, I’m going to take a deep dive looking at some of the names that were included (and some exlcuded) using data from FB Ref and American Soccer Analysis. I’ll try to place myself in Berhalter’s shoes, looking at the way chosen players fit his style and the vision for the team.
Part I: The 9s
Josh Sargent has been locked in as the starting striker for the USMNT in key games, despite growing support for alternatives. The fact that he has managed to hold his spot despite struggles for both club and country reveals something about what Berhalter wants from his striker.
Here is the list of strikers, or players who can play the role, from the Provisional Roster:
Some familiar names in there, and some who may have been unexpected. Robbie Robinson and Ricardo Pepi are players who have limited MLS experience but have looked good in those minutes. Meanwhile, Altidore and Zardes are veteran presences who have a good shot at making this roster.
Let’s dive in to what these names offer and what they might expect. These passmaps, created by MLS, are for the last 3 USA games.
Aside from the Mexico game, which I would say is not representative of the game Berhalter wants to impose on his opponents, the strikers are getting on the ball fairly deep and springing the wider forwards. Who else is playing like that? This graph looks at the number of touches a player receives outside the attacking third, and what percent of their total touches come outside the attacking third.
Hoppe is clearly the most similar; Ferreira is a much deeper lying player in general, a function of his more frequent wing play for Dallas. He is also the most ball dominant player on the list.
Ebobisse, Pepi, Dike, and Zardes all receive a majority of touches outside the attacking third, but the first two are on the ball much more in general.
Cowell and Robinson are probably better fits at winger for this team, if they make it. We’ll discuss them more in depth later.
Target Men:
A key task for Gregg’s strikers is to receive progressive passing and to distribute. It doesn’t look like the classic target striker battling for aerial balls; it’s on the ground more often than not, but having a striker who can receive progressive passing is still important.
Jozy is still great at this, and it’s hard to deny him. Daryl Dike has shown the ability to control the ball while receiving multiple progressive targets. Jeremy Ebobisse rounds this one out — his ability on the ground and in the air makes him a strong candidate for the center forward position.
Goal Threats:
While it’s not the most important aspect for the 9 in Gregg’s system, strikers have to score. Sargent has not been a prolific scorer for club or country, and this is an opportunity for a player to make their case for the roster.
Typically, the strikers for the USA are shooting between 2–3 times per game. On the provisional roster only Jozy shoots more frequently than 3 times per game, averaging 3.46 shots per 90 over the past year. Ebobisse (2.68) and Rubin (2.54) are the next in terms of prolific shooters.
That said, some of the other strikers don’t have the same opportunities. Looking more closely we can see who takes the chances they are given well. Jesus Ferreira shoots every 1.27 touches in the penalty box. Hoppe shoots less often, only shooting every 2.09 Penalty Box touches (Sargent is at 2.02 PB touches/shot), but takes the best quality shots in the pool at 0.16 npxG/shot. Given more opportunities, Hoppe and Ferreira may create better shots of their own.
Rubin has had a good season it should be noted he is radically outperforming his xG. It’s unlikely his form will continue, and of particular concern is his low shot quality at 0.02 npxG/shot. He may not be the best fit for this team at this time.
Snubs:
Is there anyone left off this roster that deserves to be there? I would say not really. Danny Musovski and Tom Barlow are both players that perform well in MLS for their clubs but don’t really have the ceiling to feature in qualifying. Christian Ramirez and CJ Sapong have had their MNT chances, and Ramirez will need to establish himself with Aberdeen.
Who should go:
If I were Gregg, I would take a player that can operate as a Sargent-esque deep lying forward and a change up player who can be more direct and dangerous. Ferreira was ineffective at Olympic qualifying and I did not feel he was capable of what he was being asked. Hoppe is a bit of a mystery, but had a good season with a dire Schalke side. With the lack of warmup games I think Ferreira gets the edge due to familiarity.
The backup will probably be Dike. He has the experience, is coming off a very good season, and if his recent MLS performance is any indication he still has gas in the tank. It’s possible a third forward will be brought, but I think other positions will need more depth.
