Derby Day: Challenge Cup Week 3 vs Racing Louisville

This won’t be the longest preview, as time is short before the game this evening, but I did want to hit some quick points before the start.

NC Courage through 2 games:

It’s hard to call the season a disappointment so far, but of couse the fact is that Courage fans are used to and expect a win every single game. With the Courage sitting at 1–0–1 and no longer controlling their own destiny in the tournament, it’s definitely not what fans were hoping for.

At the same time, it’s obvious that this is a preseason tournament for the Courage. Their cobbled together back line has seen a lot of rotation, and the lack of game reps in the real preseason show in the basic mistakes that have cost goals.

The good is that Jessica McDonald is playing like an MVP, Debinha is still dangerous, and the FB additions (whether through signing or rehabilitation) have been excellent. It’s just about sorting the issues in the defense and midfield.

Racing Louisville through 2 games:

It’s hard to judge a brand new team on the back of two games, but it’s pretty clear that Louisville is a team that wants to live by the high press. They press more in general than any team besides Chicago, and the same is true in the attacking third.

CeCe Kizer leads the competition in pressures in the attacking third per 90, and Emina Ekic is not far behind.

They’ve lost the possession battle in the last two games, but managed to equal their opponents in touches in the attacking third. When they get the ball in the final third they tend to play it safe (67% expected completion rate on their passes). Ekic is their main playmaker with 3 key passes so far in both games.

In the end, they have struggled to get shots in even games but have made those shots count. They have taken 16, with 8 on target, but surrendered 29 (just 8 on target). Their shots have been good quality with a cumulative 3.0 xGF and just 1.9 xGA. (data from FBRef/Statsbomb)

Yuki Nagasoto and Savannah McCaskill are dangerous, accounting for 1.8 of the 3.0 xG between them. They will be a challenge for the NC center backs and defensive midfield. Kizer is not usually a goal threat but can make things happen through her energy/intensity.

Of course, bright young talent Lauren Melliet showed her ability to be dangerous while on the Courage and is one to watch; Addisyn Merrick has been sidelined with an injury.

Key Metrics:

Like last match against Gotham, I want to highlight some key areas where NC must perform in order to win the match.

• Take 5 more shots with 3 more on target than Louisville: NC has not outshot an opponent yet. They need good quality shots and to get them on frame
• Lynn Williams gets at least two shots inside the box
• 4 key passes from Debinha/Mace
• Field tilt of 33%+ in opponent third and 25% or less in defensive third: Need to limit Louisville’s chances to create from the press.
• 55% possession in middle third and 45% in final third
• Greater than 50% pass completion in the final third: Consistent issue over the last two games. It’s ok to play a high risk style but at some point those passes need to come off.

Other keys to the game:

• Less than 2 shots from defensive giveaways or in transition
• Force shots, not crosses, from the channels

This match should be a chance for NC to dominate and get back on track, but it also seems possible that the defense and midfield will struggle with the press and give up chances to a determined Louisville side.