Cleanup on Aisle 9: Detangling the USMNT Striker Situation

August served up a nice surprise for USMNT fans, as multiple strikers found their scoring boots at home and abroad. This had the side effect of creating a slight selection headache for Gregg Berhalter heading into the September window. With multiple options each bringing their own distinct strengths, Berhalter’s choices are (hopefully) going to make the priorities for Qatar extremely clear.

Does the System Actually Create Chances For Strikers?

To frame this discussion, it’s absolutely important to evaluate how strikers create value in Berhalter’s chosen system. From the very beginning, Berhalter claimed that his system would create chances for strikers. As recently as January 30th, he doubled down on that specific claim. But is it true?

It’s hard to compare club soccer to international soccer, but due to lack of good data sets for the international game I’m going to have to. I pulled the shot data for MLS from 2013 to today, and compared the USMNT performances (against teams with an ELO rating of 1500 or better, roughly El Salvador quality). If the USMNT was a team, this is how they stack up against typical MLS teams.

Not good! The USMNT both creates shots at a lower rate than most teams, but also creates fewer chances for strikers relative to the rest of the team. Some of that is due to how USMNT plays typically with a single striker, but that is not enough to account for the full difference.

There’s nothing wrong with a system that primarily creates shots from wing or midfield positions; 2019 LAFC was the best team in MLS history in terms of chance creation and their strikers only took 13.7% of their shots. The problem is that Berhalter (at least publicly) has not committed to that system, and it means that fans lack a clear picture of what he wants from the striker position.

Fundamental Confusion of Roles

Although the USMNT has struggled to find high quality strikers in the Gregg era, there still are a number of players who can play at the international level. If you gave a team like Panama or Costa Rica a Jesus Ferreira or Brandon Vazquez, there is no doubt in my mind they would find a way to get them the ball and have them take chances. Every World Cup there are a few strikers who are far worse than anyone in serious consideration for the USMNT who battle their way into goals and become, however briefly, heroes for their nation.

In other words, the quality isn’t the issue. It’s a system issue.

I’ve separated the striker pool into 3 main groups based on the primary strengths of the players. This doesn’t mean they can’t do other roles, but it does provide insight into how they get the bulk of their chances and how they fit into the USMNT. You have your Vertical Threats, your Target Forwards, and your Facilitators (sometimes incorrectly called False 9’s, but that’s a discussion for another day).

The Vertical Threats

Last September, Berhalter made a bit of a buzz by frequently pointing out the lack of “verticality” in his attacking options and emphasizing runs behind the back line as a key chance creation metric. Despite that supposed increased emphasis on verticality, there’s been little to show for it in terms of on field production. There are three main players whose ability to stretch a game vertically stand out.

Haji Wright — Antalyaspor

Haji had an underwhelming run out in the last set of USMNT games, scoring a penalty goal on his runout against Morocco. Berhalter did not appear to be happy with his appearances, but if you look at his tape it stands out that he very rarely got those balls into spaces where he could run on and challenge an attacker. More often than not he was dropping back and linking up with his USMNT teammates.

Compare that to his play for Antalyaspor, where he is frequently played into spaces where he can beat defenders using some combination of his speed, size, and technique:

Haji’s speed is definitely game changing — though full data is limited for the Turkish league, he was the fastest striker in game week 3. The top speed here of 9.03 m/s isn’t blazing fast, but it’s also a sample size of 1.

Haji is at his best when the defense is facing back towards their own goal, trying to keep up with him. He can do target forward things (congrats on scoring his first professional headed goal this season) but he has a tendency to lose out in physical battles in and around the box despite his size. He isn’t as good as some others working with his back towards the goal, and playing intricately in possession.

To get the most out of Haji, the USMNT must find ways to get him isolated in the channels or even on the wings where he wins his physical matchups. Antalyaspor has managed to figure this out, and it’s hard to believe that a team as talented as the USMNT relative to their opponents can’t do the same.

Daryl Dike — West Brom

Dike is unfortunately injured at the time of writing, so very much a long shot for making the World Cup team, but he might be the peak USMNT player in terms of his ability to add value through stretching the field.

Dike is a physical monster, posting a top speed of 9.551 m/s while being strong enough to hold off any center back he faces. Dike was fouled on more of his touches than any other player in MLS with more than 500 minutes in 2021. When he has a step, the other team often has no choice other than to bring him down. For a team like the USA, who thrive on set pieces, he provides instantaneous value.

Dike also provides target forward value in that he is a large set piece threat, and can score well in the air. Barnsley loved his ability in their “launch and squish” system, although he did play himself out of being affordable for them.

The downside of Dike is that he is essentially non-existent in possession, fully relying on his teammates to service him and unable to find the game on his own. He can be an aerial threat, but offers little in the way of hold up play either in the progression phase or the final third.

An interesting analytic point is that by the G+ based Player Elo Ranking has Dike as rated more highly than either Brandon Vazquez or Jeremy Ebobisse’s peaks when he departed for West Brom despite not having quite as good of a G+/96. The Elo ranking takes into account length of time on the field, opponent strength, and home field advantage, and because of that is more predictive that just G+/96.

Ricardo Pepi — Augsburg

Ricardo Pepi has had a roller coaster experience to his time with the USMNT, playing brilliantly for both FC Dallas and the USMNT in the early going before crashing shortly before and ever since his outrageously expensive move to Augsburg. This is normal for Ricardo Pepi — like most teenagers his performances are inconsistent. All we can hope for is that he is currently at his lowest point, and there’s nowhere to go but up.

Pepi isn’t widely considered to be a vertical threat, but notice that the majority of his goals come where he is able to run on a ball, use his characteristically soft feet to set up a shot, and place it past the keeper. Not only that, but he has underrated speed, posting a top speed of 9.64 m/s in MLS last season (per 2nd Spectrum) and sitting 28th in the Bundesliga this season with a top speed 0f 9.41 m/s so far.

Pepi’s soft feet and big frame allow him to be a target in the box as well, though he lacks physical presence in the air. He also struggles to find the game when things aren’t going his way, and was in the bottom half of MLS strikers for touches in every area of the field. He’s also in dreadful form and not trusted by a team that is going to fight against relegation all season long.

Does this type work for the USMNT?

The fundamental issue is that opponents have no real desire to defend aggressively against the USA and open up spaces where vertical players can do damage. The USMNT is set up to dominate the ball, but with that they struggle to create transition moments for their strikers. Teams are content so sit back knowing that there are few if any players who can adequately pick the lock and beat their defensive structure.

On top of that, the role of the strikers in possession means that they are not as free to drift to either wing and create mismatches against fullbacks. All in all, the vertical strikers have not had the best experience in the USMNT system despite Gregg’s prior insistence on their value.

The Target Forwards

The classic physically imposing target forward is a staple for almost all international teams, as the game can often and simply require a big guy to physically impose himself in the box and get on the end of a cross or cutback. The ability to win challenges both in the box and in progression can add value to a team that lacks ability to create those chances through possession play. The USMNT is no different, though traditionally Berhalter has shied away from less mobile target forwards. As crossing has become less and less important in the modern game the target forward may be seen as an anachronism, but for a team that relies on its fullbacks and set pieces to create danger it’s unwise to overlook these players.

Jordan Pefok — Union Berlin

Jordan Pefok rode a massive season with Young Boys in Switzerland to a lucrative transfer to Union Berlin, a scrappy but underfunded Bundesliga team. The move came with some consternation; Pefok isn’t known for being a player who can create his own shot, but one who is excellent and finishing off chances fashioned by his teammates. Could his new team create on a level where he could keep his production high?

So far, with an extremely small sample size, those fears seem to be a little unfounded. While his chances have dropped somewhat, with only 3 shots per game versus 3.8 with Young Boys, he has put in 2 goals already and seems to be a central fixture for Union Berlin.

Pefok’s ability to find high quality shots has always separated him from other strikers. For Young Boys last season, he put up 22 goals and 16.96 xG (per FotMob) on just 80 shots for an incredible 0.21 xG/shot (5 penalties included), which is roughly around 0.18 npxG/shot. His most memorable moment in a USMNT shirt is undoubtedly his miss from the doorstep against Mexico, which is unfortunate. It’s created questions around him about his finishing ability which are quite frankly absurd. Even the best strikers miss at times, and it’s the ability to find chances in front of the goal that really counts for something. Pefok will continue to get those chances and next time, he’ll put them in.

Pefok’s major limitation is his overall speed. Compared to the vertical threats from the previous section, he’s positively glacial. His top speed of 8.87 meters per second is well below the average striker in MLS or the Bundesliga, and in order to create separation he has to rely on intelligent movement.

Despite this, it’s been noted that Pefok is a willing and able presser since his move to the Bundesliga. I’m going to get on my soapbox about this a bit — feel free to skip ahead. Defensive styles are universally determined by coaches and systems above the individual player level. As a general rule of thumb, teams defend and players attack. Barring some extreme outliers, every player in USMNT consideration is both physically able and willing to press. Individual attacking performance is notable, but (outside the extremes) individual defensive performance is really just an indication of coaching and team style. Worrying about whether or not a striker can press is pointless.

Brandon Vazquez — FC Cincinnati

If you follow MLS at all, it’s hard not to be inundated with Brandon Vazquez hype. The well traveled 23 year old has had setback after setback during his MLS career, from Barco forcing him out at Atlanta through nefarious and public means, to winding up at one of the worst teams in MLS history. FC Cincinnati’s turnaround has coincided with a stunning Golden Boot campaign (despite not taking penalties) for its young striker, and its understandable how much his star has risen.

Vazquez stands a chiseled 6'3", easily fitting the Target Forward role from a physical point of view. Like Pefok, he lacks a bit in terms of pace, topping out at just 9.12 m/s, not slow but also not a threat to leave CBs in his wake. He uses his physicality and solid footwork to hold off defenders but isn’t a huge 1v1 threat. He relies on his teammates such as Brenner and Lucho Acosta to give him the space he needs to work against isolated defenders.

What Vazquez does well is get high quality shots. With an absolutely insane 0.19 npxG/shot during the 2022 season so far, Vazquez absolutely shines in his ability to get open in the most dangerous positions possible. He has fit into Pat Noonan’s system like a hand in a glove, providing work rate and effort on the defensive end while being a target both inside and outside the box for a more direct offensive effort.

Jeremy Ebobisse — San Jose Earthquakes

After languishing for years in a Portland system that seemed to have no idea how to use him, Jeremy Ebobisse has exploded this season for the San Jose Earthquakes as an out and out target forward. His transition from a player that was broadly viewed as a winger, even including his one national team appearance, to goal scoring centerpiece has been remarkable. He is just off the lead in the MLS Golden Boot Race, and with changes to the coaching system and the fact that the Earthquakes are no longer among the absolute worst in the league could easily take it at season’s end.

While not as productive as Vazquez in MLS, requiring 11 more shots for one fewer goal, a brief glance at the goals he does score show a knack for getting open off the counter press. He often gets on the end of balls after a turnover, losing his marker in the ensuing chaos. This is something that is essential for a striker in the aggressive press of the Berhalter system.

Ebobisse doesn’t have the hype or the bonafides of Vazquez or Pefok, but he does produce for a terrible San Jose team. Another interesting wrinkle is that he has been contacted by the Cameroon national team. Cameroon runs a two striker system but has yet to find the perfect pair for Eric Choupo-Mouting, and Ebobisse could have an angle to a spot in Qatar — just not for the USA.

The Facilitators:

Jesus Ferreira — FC Dallas

Jesus Ferreira’s jump into the national team setup was a long time coming, limited only by the fact that for most of his career he hadn’t been eligible. He has been an elite youth talent, one of the youngest to really make an impact in the league and having a steady but not meteoric rise to being the league’s first Homegrown Designated Player.

He’s repaid the faith and the money FC Dallas put into him this year, with 15 goals as of writing and another 5 assists. He’s firmly in the MVP discussion for the league, and Dallas looks like a dark horse contender when the playoffs roll around.

Ferreira is comfortable dropping far deeper into the buildup than your average striker, and will often end up with 3 or even 4 passing options in front of him when he is able to turn and face the goal. He is comfortable on the dribble as well, playing more like an attacking midfielder at times than an out and out striker.

This season in particular, he’s shown an impressive ability to get back into the attack to receive the final ball after helping build into the attacking third. His energy and movement off the ball is excellent, and his runs usually start from much deeper than other forwards and can be more difficult to track.

If there’s any concern about Ferreira, it’s that he has difficulty producing with the USMNT. Aside from the goals against Grenada, there isn’t a lot to show he can produce. With only 9 shots and 1 goal in 8 games against teams with above 1500 Elo, the possibility is that he is stretched too thin in the system. That was true in Olympic Qualifying running roughly the same system; although he was one of the USA’s best players his need to be involved in all phases of play sometimes took him out of the match entirely.

Josh Sargent-Norwich City

Josh Sargent has had such a roller coaster career that it’s easy to forget he’s just 22. From exploding onto the scene as a 17 year old at the U20 World Cup, to the ill-fated move to Werder Bremen, to signing on for yo-yo team Norwich City’s brutal 2021 campaign. Every time it seems he’s building momentum, he hits a poor spot of form or an ill advised position change.

Nevertheless, it seems that he has found his home in the Championship. Norwich had Teemu Pukki leading the line for so long that it is hard to imagine another player there, but Sargent is making his case. His work rate and general skill level mean that he contributes well drifting out wide or working deeper in possession, though he does not operate in those spaces nearly as much as Ferreira.

For Sargent, making a case for a spot in Qatar is going to be not just showing consistent form in league play but also demonstrating he can do what Berhalter wants. He has struggled to create or finish for the national team, with no goals on 18 shots and just 1 assist against 1500+ Elo opponents. He is being scouted ahead of the September friendlies, so he is clearly still in the running.

These 8 players are the most legitimate candidates for the center forward position heading in to Qatar. Of those 8, the most likely outcome is that three will be chosen. Which three provide the greatest value from an uncertain field?

The vertical threats, in my opinion, fit poorly in the Berhalter system. Haji is doing wonderful things for Antalyaspor and is one of my favorite players in the pool but aside from possibly England, the World Cup opponents are going to stay tight at the back and keep the game in front of them. There will not be much space in behind to run. Dike is hurt, and it’s hard to see a world where Pepi manages to turn the corner at Augsburg. All three of these players are young enough to contribute in the next cycle.

Pefok stands out among the target forwards as the option who has had the most success in recent seasons. He plays against the highest level of competition on a regular basis. That said, Vazquez will in all likelihood get one chance in September to prove himself. A good window could find him on the shortlist. Ebobisse is unlikely to be called up at this point, and should consider other national team options.

That leaves Ferreira and Sargent. Ferreira seems like as close to a lock as possible. He’s had a great season for FC Dallas and been a feature for multiple windows. The hype train is running for him at full gear, and he seems to be a Berhalter favorite. After two nightmare years in the basement of the Bundesliga and the Premier League, things might be looking up for Josh Sargent. I think he brings a combination of skills that makes him deserving when in form.

Who Makes the Cut:

In the end, what matters the most is not necessarily who is at striker, but whether or not the team as a whole creates chances. The team relies on the wings and midfield to provide goals because overall, the forwards have not.

If I were the manager, my three forwards for Qatar would be Pefok, Ferreira, and Sargent. Sargent and Ferreira are most capable of playing the way that Berhalter wants to play, and the best at creating chances for their teammates by dropping deep in possession and opening holes for the more talented wingers. If the possession play isn’t working and the team is chasing a goal, Pefok can enter to create matchup problems for the opposing defense and hopefully get on the end of attacking moves. Of the remaining five, only Brandon Vazquez has a serious chance at making the final roster. He has a great deal to prove heading into September. He would have to convince Berhalter that he can supplant Pefok or offer more than Sargent at the current moment.

There are difficult decisions ahead and it’s hard to fully separate any of these players, but making an impact in Qatar will require the right choice.