All Gas No Brakes: Courage Week 2 vs. Gotham FC

After two games, North Carolina Courage have scored 6 and surrendered 6. In the other 10 games in the 2021 NWSL Challenge Cup, just 15 goals have been scored. What is going on?

Pro tip to the newer soccer fans out there: when a coach subs BOTH center backs at the half, it’s not good. The defensive performance was poor all game but a cursory look at the goals shows serious errors that proved decisive.

Goal 1: Purce was dangerous all game, but in large part NC limited her to bad shooting positions from the right side of the box. This was not one of those times. Purce is on full sprint in transition and between the DM (O’Sullivan) and the CBs. She has a runner on her left, but DeBree and Roccaro kept her offside.

Error 1: DeBree stepped up from a strong defensive position. Roccaro should be making the step here as she has no need to cover her flank, there’s no one there. Sub-Error: When DeBree misjudges the run, she failed to foul Purce. Sometimes as a defender you have to pay for an error with a card, and this was one of those times.

Error 2: Roccaro just watches the above and does not provide central cover to DeBree. You have to get Purce into the left channel in this situation, away from the middle.

I don’t blame Murphy for this one. On a true one on one you would need a more aggressive step out but Purce had an easy square ball the whole time and Murphy did get a hand on it.

Goal 2:

Error 1: Roccaro chases out to intercept a bouncing ball to Monaghan on the flank, but misjudges it and ends up in terrible position. Play it safe there or foul when you get beat.

Error 2: Somehow we had two defenders on the near post, and two more directly between Monaghan and Purce. It’s a great run from Purce and a great ball, but DeBree needs to close it down and there’s no way a keeper and a defender should get beat like that. Speck is hustling to get back, and can’t be blamed for the outcome, but she had a play on the ball as well.

Goal 3: Turns out Carli Lloyd is great at getting into goal scoring positions, maybe you should watch her?

Error 1: Carli Lloyd, a world famous USWNT player with an outrageous amount of goals at both the club and national level, makes a run across the face of the defenders. This is not a disguised or even particularly clever run and I doubt when Lloyd initally decided to make the run, she expected the ball. Turns out, when you don’t move with the runner, they get open. Speck just watches Lloyd (who again, is world famous for doing this exact thing) and that gives all the space needed for Lloyd to receive, take a touch, and finish with her left. Murphy is quick to react, but maybe too tentative in coming out and gets beat to the near post. Hard to blame Murphy for this one.

This series of errors caused Riley to make the necessary change at the half, and from then on the Courage were mostly in control until Viens put in a nice backheel at the close of the match.

Against the Metrics:

Prior to the game I identified key metrics that NC would probably need to hit to win the game. How did it go?

At least 33% of all touches are in NJ/NY’s third

• 30.2% actual. NC failed to keep the ball in the final third, and quite honestly failed to hold it in the middle third as well. They slightly won the tilt battle (30.2% Opp third vs. 29% own third), but that wasn’t enough because…

At least 50% pass completion in the final third.

• 45% actual completion percentage, 54% expected. For two games, NC Courage have played very riskily in the final third and underperformed expectations. The Courage are usually one of the more direct teams in the final third, but they have to execute at a high level or it causes problems.
• Even though Gotham attempted 12 fewer passes (90 vs 102) they completed 10 more (56 vs 46). They needed just 31 passes per xG created, broadly due to their better shooting positions.

The Courage take 15 shots and have at least 7 on target.

• 15 shots, but only 5 on target. This is in large part due to the poor locations of the Courage shots. Gotham kept NC away from “Zone 14” at the top of the box and that limited NC’s ability to create shots in good positions.

Shot data from NWSL website

The Courage average at least 0.10 xG/Shot

• 0.09 xG/Shot, primarily lessened by the long shots throughout the game. Debinha found good positions and the 3 goals were well taken. The real issue was the 0.18 xG/shot for Gotham — double the xG on the same number of shots.

Lynn Williams takes at least 4 shots

• Just 1 shot off target for 0.02 xG pre-shot. Williams is expected to be an MVP caliber difference maker, but she was barely involved in the game. She went 8/16 passing in the final third, but even the completed passes were mostly horizontal layoffs.

Less than 2 shots surrendered due to possession errors in the defensive third

• Possession errors; no. Defensive errors.. well, we went over that already.

What went right?

It’s hard to label a one goal loss where the Courage scored 3 goals as a complete failure, and there are definite positives.

• Jessica McDonald continues to play at a high level. Gotham adjusted in the second half to prevent her from running free in the right channel, but her smart movement and passing were key in the first half. Her self-sacrificial goal had me worried for her safety; she’s an irreplacable player in this kind of form.
• Debinha made up for rough finishing in the first game with some well taken goals here, and proved to be a constant threat in the final third. Her passing in the final third looks terrible — just 6 for 20 — but a great deal of those incomplete passes came from set pieces and corners.
• Carson Pickett continues to look like the best signing of the offseason. She was hugely influential in the buildup and creates danger. Her aggressive positioning can ask a lot of the CBs and CDMs, and I worry that in the future she will be limited in order to create defensive solidity.

What Now?

The Courage visit newcomers Racing Louisville in a must win game in order to stay alive in the competition. Even with a win here and against the Pride, the Courage will need Gotham to drop points against Louisville or Washington.

In my season predictions I had NC winning the Challenge Cup at 65%; more likely than not, but not a strong confidence level. It is clear Riley views this tournament as preseason, and while a win would be nice the team needs time to put it all together.