6 Point Propabilities: NCFC and NC Courage Preview
NC Courage vs. OL Reign
NWSL is back this weekend with the start of the regular season. Though the Challenge Cup was a frustrating experience at times, the team had moments of brilliance. Paul Riley’s comments clearly indicated the team viewed the Challenge Cup as a preseason of sorts, especially with the absence of many key players.
The Courage will have their sights set on the top spot, champions of the regular season. They have every reason to be considered contenders, but need to clean some major issues up in order to reach full strength as a team.
- Eliminate defensive mistakes: Erceg’s return to the lineup should help organize the entire team. Poor rotations, sloppy giveaways, and misjudged plays cost the Courage multiple goals in the Challenge Cup.
- Shoot on target: According to FBRef, the Courage generated 8.4 xG over the group stage — the most of any team. Despite that, they only had 6.6 xG post shot, an indicator that they were not making the most of their chances. Even worse, while they had an expected goal difference of +2.1, their post shot xGD was -0.4
- Play for (some) possession: The Courage has built a brand on high risk high energy soccer, and historically it’s worked, but in the Challenge Cup the inability to control the ball led to opportunities in transition, and poor transition defense led to goals. Even though the Courage were 6th in total passes per 90, they led the NWSL in interceptions per 90 by a significant margin.
Against OL Reign:
The Reign have a team that is structured for possession, but struggles to create offense from that possession. They had just 21% of their touches in the opposing third. (The Courage, for contrast, had 30% of their touches in the opposing third in the Challenge Cup). They also have had significant roster shakeup, adding three heavy hitters from Lyon’s roster, but it will take them time to gel. This should be a game that the Courage are set up to win; press high, force mistakes, and convert them into goals.
Key Metrics:
- Field tilt of 35% or greater in the Reign third
- Attacking Third completion percentage of 55% or greater
- 6 Shots on target between Debinha, Williams, and McDonald
- Hold the Reign to 8 shots or fewer
NCFC vs Forward Madison FC
NCFC travels to Wisconsin to face the Mingos. After facing the toughest team in USL League One, it would be nice to face an easier opponent. Unfortunately Forward Madison is by my calculation the second toughest opponent and even worse, it’s away. That means that NCFC is even less likely to win against Madison than they were against Greenville.
In the end, success will be about hanging tough with Forward Madison. Madison struggled to create quality chances against a overmatched FC Tucson side; they took 21 shots but only put 5 on frame, and generated just 0.07 xG/shot. As long as NCFC can avoid costly mistakes they should have an opportunity to hit on the counter.
NCFC will have to also avoid getting pinned in their own end, either with or without possession. Greenville kept NCFC in their own half throughout the second half, and dared NCFC to play through them.
Key Metrics:
- Limit field tilt to 30% or less in the NCFC third
- Robbie Kristo has at least 3 shots in the penalty area
- Forward Madison gets less than 7 shots on target
- Greater than 0.12 xg/shot for NC and less than 0.8 xG/shot for Madison
- No penalties, no red cards
6 Point Propabilities:
