5/22/21 Weekend Preview: Courage vs. Pride and NCFC vs. Richmond Kickers

After a disappointing road weekend for both teams, the Courage return home against the Orlando Pride and NCFC plays much closer to home against the Richmond kickers.

Let’s look at the power rankings to see where the opponents fall:

NWSL

USL

Looks pretty good for both teams; NCFC faces their weakest opponent yet, and the Courage face the weakest opponent possible. Unfortunately NCFC is still on the road, and that is probably enough to make Richmond the favorites.

Courage vs. Pride

The Orlando Pride drew their first game of the season against a Washington Spirit team that mostly controlled the match, due to a well taken Alex Morgan goal on the counter. They should be happy to come in with a point, but it is important to note how quickly their talented forwards can turn an opportunity into a goal.

The Pride have not put up outstanding numbers so far; they are second to last in xG generated since the start of the Challenge Cup, and they are dead last in total passes in the opponent’s third. They are last in overall shot quality with 0.090 xG per shot.

In possession, their goal is to move the ball upfield as quickly as possible. When passing out of their defensive and middle third, they average the highest progressive distance per completion in NWSL this season.

In a sense, these are two teams whose styles will fit comfortably together; the Courage will try to keep possession and pressure high up the field while the Pride look to lob balls over the top into the channels to create chances for their forwards. How the NC Courage defensive midfielders and center backs rotate will be key to limiting Orlando’s chances.

The ELO calculation predicts that NC Courage should have the edge in xG 2.58–0.81, with a 75% chance of picking up all 3 points.

Key Metrics:

• Limit Leroux and Morgan to 6 shots or fewer
• No Orlando shots in the box in front of the goal
• At least 15 shots with 6 on target
• At least 55% pass completion in Orlando’s third and 65% or greater in the middle third

NCFC Vs Richmond:

Richmond is a middle of the pack USL League One team with a record of 1–2–0, but with a key danger piece in last season’s MVP Emiliano Terzaghi. He has 2 goals on 14 shots, slightly underperforming his xG of 2.44. He’s just below Lomis in terms of shot quality and xG and goal one should be shutting him down.

Richmond is not the offensive juggernaught of Madison or Greenville who will throttle you with possession and aggressive field tilt. They are more of a team that sits back patiently and uses the high quality play of their strikers to create goals.

NCFC has made it through the toughest two game stretch of their schedule and now needs to dust off and play their soccer against the Kickers. This is an opportunity to display the kind of team we can expect going forward and for Bradford’s tactical vision to be manifested somewhat.

I would like to see a return to the 4–4–2 approach against Greenville, where Kamara played off Kristo to create danger. NCFC should have more time to build up as well, and while it may be more difficult to find balls in behind like the pass to Miscic for the lone goal so far, they should be able to generate more chances from the run of play. I would also like to see some rotation with Hamilton and other players earning opportunities.

Key Metrics

• At least 4 shots inside the box for Kristo.
• Either equal or slightly better field tilt in Richmond’s third
• Limit Terzaghi to 3 shots total
• At least 20 final third passes between Flores and Martinez (or Hamilton)
• Win the possession battle in middle third