2024 MLS Superdraft Gems

I’ve been working a little more in Wyscout since I have access this season thanks to my work with the Outfield. Unlike pretty much every data provider out there, Wyscout collects data on NCAA Division 1 soccer games. They collect data even down to the Division 3 level, in fact, for anyone willing to dive that deep into the weeds. Because of this, it provides the ideal source to really analyze options available to teams at the Superdraft.

The Superdraft itself is a delightful little oddity unique to the USA. Unlike drafts in other popular sports, it doesn’t serve as the primary source of talent for the league, nor is its purpose to provide for the equitable distribution of talent. In fact, in many ways it’s hard to justify the existence of the draft aside from some vestigial leftover from the days where MLS was much more American.

Despite all that, there’s still talent to be found in the draft. I haven’t gone into too much depth yet with identifying where and how players make an impact in the league, but here are my priors based on watching the league for a while.

First, the physical level of college soccer is closer to the physical level of MLS than the tactical or technical level. That means a player is a physical outlier (Miles Robinson, Daryl Dike, DeJuan Jones), they are likely to be a physical outlier in MLS. Of course the player will still need to adapt technically and tactically, and many do not, but at the very least there’s some certainty.

Second is that players can always move back, but rarely forward. There’s a constant flow of attack minded wingers that flow back towards fullbacks, technical attacking 10s who have to transition into 8s, or rugged 6s that can only really make it as CBs. There are occasionally special players who really are difference makers in MLS at the position they played in college, but having flexibility increases survivability and we see more of those players make it.

Third is that the draft really is a gamble, and the most likely outcome is nothing. This has been written about a couple places, but the fact is that most drafted players do not make much of an impact in the league, if any at all. There’s no such thing as a safe pick, so going with the highest upside players makes the most drafting sense regardless of downside.

I pulled a few different lists of players to get an idea of the draft pool. I used the Top Drawer Soccer top 100 players, and cross referenced it against the 44 players who attended the MLS Showcase for college players. I also included some of the top players on the NCAA rate stats leaderboard. Finally, the tweets of Mark Kellenburg (@kelkensport) have been a huge resource. I found his account while trolling around for highlight videos. It would be easiest if MLS would just release the list of draft eligible players in a timely manner, but alas. Then, using Wyscout, I did my best to identify key performance indicators and try to find outliers that might translate to MLS.

In no particular order, here’s who I think offers real potential in the 2024 Superdraft.

1. Kimani Stewart-Baynes — Winger — University of Maryland

Stewart-Baynes was listed as a forward in the college showcase, despite being relatively undersized, and wasn’t ranked in TDS top 100 (52nd overall Freshman). The 18 year old from Canada is another in the Vaughan SC pipeline, producers of MLS players like Mark Anthony Kaye and Alistair Johnston.

There’s a couple things that make KSB such a high potential prospect. First is obviously his age; at 18, he’s still full of potential and even eligible for the 2025 U20 World Cup. Compared to some of the other draft prospects who are in their early 20s, he stands out as someone with a lot of room to grow.

Second is that he has track speed. This isn’t a film based conjecture; he ran a sub 11 second 100m as a high school junior. His older brother is a track athlete (200 and 400m dash) at the University of Miami. The speed is real, and that kind of speed is a difference maker at any level.

In terms of the numbers, he stands out as an active dribbler. He led the sample of 20 forwards I was looking at in progressive runs, with 3.41 per game, and also stood out in take ons and take on %. His xA of 0.31 per 90 was notable as well as his 3.78 touches in the penalty area per 90. He’s an aggressive, box attacking winger who might need to add some scoring. Here’s some of his tape from last season:

I’ve heard rumors that he’s going to go high in the draft, and that seems right to me. Of all the players available he might be the highest upside pick.

2. Emil Jääskeläinen— Striker — Long Island University

There’s a number of top strikers that might go higher than Jääskeläinen, for a variety of reasons. He didn’t score as much as some of them, and he’s not quite as flashy or gifted on the ball. He comes from a somewhat smaller program at LIU and isn’t competing for championships.

That sad, the son of former Premier League goalkeeper Jääskeläinen has something that I’m looking for — sheer physical domination as a target forward. Of the 20 forwards sampled, he almost doubled the best of the field in aerials attempted and won, and comfortably led in aerial win percentage. He managed to lead the sample in shots per game and put up a whopping 0.61 xG per game, and if I had to guess a huge percentage of that was off his head.

Set piece production is one of the most consistent areas where teams can get value, and Jääskeläinen is a target when the ball gets anywhere near the box. If he can add value in all phases of the game, it’s a bonus, but accepting his limitations while maximizing his strengths might be a real path forward for a team that relies on those moments to win games.

3. Filip Mirkovic — Midfielder —University of Pittsburgh

NYCFC has produced a few very successful college midfielders who have transitioned to the pro game, but not with NYCFC. Dante Polvara moved from Georgetown to Aberdeen while Veljko Petkovic put in half a season of MLS Next Pro Dominance before disappearing entirely. Mirkovic now is poised to be the next to get away.

Mirkovic is an all action 8 with an eye for the final ball. He had the highest usage of all the midfielders I looked at with 64 passes per game, and for the most part plays with limited risk. His completion percentages were generally high, and a smaller number of his passes went forward compared to other similar midfielders. He very rarely got into the box, but still managed to generate a respectable 0.2 xA per 90. He took set pieces for Pittsburgh, which probably accounts for a decent amount of that xA.

I don’t set too much stock in duels as they’re far more context dependent than other KPAs, but he did perform admirably in defensive duels won, aerial duels won, and other defensive stats.

It’s not the sexiest midfield profile, and probably translates to being a Aidan Morris game controller type than a real ceiling raiser, but there’s undoubtedly a place for him in MLS.

4. Ousmane Sylla — Midfielder— Clemson University

As I was writing this, Tom Bogert went and reported that Sylla might follow the footsteps of other top NCAA players like Nathan Opoku or Dante Polvara and move to Europe before signing a deal. Bummer.

Sylla is a classic NCAA 10, in that he dominated the league from an attacking role and didn’t have to do quite as much defensive work as the other midfielders on his team. Like an NCAA 10, he’s going to have to move back to make his mark in MLS (or wherever). That said, there’s a number of reasons to think that it’s a real option.

Sylla was a dynamic attacker for Clemson, doing a bit of everything for the National Champions. Although his overall usage was relatively low, he seemed to be everywhere for the team, providing a constant outlet in possession and attacking with his direct runs. He led the midfield sample in progressive runs with 2.67 per 90, and used his ability to create separation to create chances for himself and others (0.42 xG+xA per 90). He got in the box at an exceptionally high rate at 2.93 touches per 90, and virtually none of that was just touches off set pieces.

It takes a team willing to take a risk to bring in a smaller 10 and try to turn him into an 8, Sylla is likely to adapt to the position well. He’ll bring an attacking verve like a Dani Pereira, and should manage the physicality of the league well.

5. Cole Hunter — Goalkeeper — Eastern Tennessee State University

With goalkeepers, the rise of advanced analytics has streamlined the process of identifying underrated talent. Although passing and sweeping actions are important, they pale in pure value to shot stopping. NCAA goalkeepers have managed to make significant contributions in MLS and even the US Men’s National Team, and continue to be a fertile development ground.

While working with lower league data, one trend that I noticed is that while finishing and conversion rates are basically the same for outfield players, performance against xG is consistently lower for goalkeepers the lower you go. MLS Next Pro strikers, for example, consistently outperform their xG. That’s not because they’re great finishers; it’s because the keepers are that much worse. Knowing that the xG value the GKs face is basically translatable to the higher level means that good performances are also translatable.

Cole Hunter’s G/xGOT ratio is a 0.62. That’s a remarkably good number, comparing well with Roman Celentano’s 0.58 in college soccer. Now, there are some confounders there. He played for Lander University in 2019, transferred to ETSU, and didn’t really play consistently until this last season. In Wyscout, he only amassed 2407 scouted minutes of game time. That’s not a huge sample, and it may mean that the margin for error is much higher.

Still, even being close would put him comfortably among the best goalkeepers to come out of NCAA. Cole Jensen, the first goalkeeper taken in 2023, only managed 0.74. MLS Cup winner Patrick Schulte was around 0.98. Hunter is comfortably ahead of either. The biggest knock on him is that he is quite short for a goalkeeper, listed at just 6'0", but that hasn’t mattered so far as he shows excellent reach on diving saves.

First round goalkeepers have become rarer and rarer, despite being a position with proven benefits. Hunter should be available deep into the first round, and maybe after. It would make sense for an interested team to take a flyer on a player who might come up big.

(Edited to add: Hunter is not on the draft eligible list. Feels like an oversight. Somebody has to go sign this guy!)

6. Jahlane Forbes — Left Winger/Wingback— Wake Forest University

I was a little torn on this one. I’m trying to highlight players with a real statistical edge, a standout metric that pushes them above the rest of the pack even if the rest of their game isn’t necessarily polished or fully developed. Forbes is a very good player, who is one of the most important players for Wake Forest with an excellent resume. That said there’s nothing in the statistical report that stands out, rather he is just an all around performer.

I ended up picking him because the same is true of most of the wide players I was looking at. Some were naturally more defensive, while others were more geared towards attacking. Forbes is definitely a through and through attacker but shows the physicality and defensive quality to move anywhere on the left side of the field, as well as two footedness.

The Orlando City Academy product trends towards the middle of my sample for most of the key performance indicators I was looking at, but there are no real weaknesses in his game. His shot creation is good, he gets into the box, and he provides solid defensive performances by the metrics. He manages a good bit of usage for an attacking minded player, and his strong pass completion % shows a balance of risk and reward in possession play.

I’m not betting the house on him making it as an MLS player, because it’s entirely possible that every one of those traits could fall just short of what is needed. That happens to a lot of well rounded players. Still, it takes just a little improvement in all of them to be an MLS quality player with the flexibility to succeed.

At this point, it’s the day before the Superdraft. There are lots of other players I’m looking at, but these are the ones I think have stood out the most. If I’m inspired, I might write about a few more. Probably not, at this stage.